What Will the Next Real Estate Cycle Look Like?

Mueller, Glenn R.

doi:10.1080/10835547.2002.12089662

Cited by 25 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Availability of finance scores high -studies in countries like Nigeria highlight that the increase in lending rates and high inflation in growing economies put real estate markets at higher capital risks, even in conditions when markets have high liquidity (Ogedengbe & Adesopo, 2003). Timing the project in optimum market conditions can lead to quicker recovery of the investment (Mueller, 2002). Developers who responded to our survey believe that having past experience of similar projects and understanding market conditions is an important factor in successful project execution.…”

Section: Discussion -Ahp Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Mueller, in his study, suggests that, due to a supply-demand imbalance, when market conditions are slow, developers are likely to slow construction activity and renew capital flows to restore the market conditions (Mueller, 2002). The study does not discuss the supply-demand equilibrium with respect to the timing of the project announcement.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Evaluating Critical Factors Impacting Real Estate Development Decisions

Pandya

Patel

2020

Real Estate Management and Valuation

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We find that critical factors affecting real estate project decisions can vary while market changes in the city of Ahmedabad have led to the majority of landmark buildings facing obsolesce, redevelopment and spatial redundancy. Case studies can assist in data collection in the cultural context and accommodate indirect observations of the variables analyzed in the early stages of research (Teegavarapu & Summers, 2008; Rowley, 2002). Decisions have led to capital losses for some, while bringing about profitable opportunities for developers who take timely risks.We also find that the land pooling technique used by the State in city development has successfully promoted land banking for public purpose but has also contributed to speculative land price appreciation. AHP rankings show that the surveyed practicing developers prioritized location factors such as neighborhood character and availability of land above land use zones and land auctions. Among project factors, FAR (Floor Area Ratio), abutting road width and road frontage of the land ranked higher compared to building design. In the professional practice category, the availability of finance, the timing of project announcement and past project experience of the developers ranked higher compared to brand value and speculation.

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Section: Discussion -Ahp Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 98%

Evaluating Critical Factors Impacting Real Estate Development Decisions

Pandya

Patel

2020

Real Estate Management and Valuation

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“…A gradual reduction in price levels is only possible if sufficient stock has been built up during the period of price increase (Titman et al, 2011). In general, demand is considered to be particularly "sensitive" to the effects of the business cycle while supply historically lags behind demand (Muller, 2002). Rigidity of supply comes as a result of the scarcity of buildable land and of time -consuming actions regarding the issue of building permits, financing and the completion of construction (Hilbers et al, 2008).…”

Section: Figure1 Phases Of the Real Estate Supply / Demand Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Construction as a Leading Economic Indicator

Olga

Rovolis

2019

Studies in Business and Economics

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The construction industry, and especially residential building construction activity, represents a significant part of a country’s general economy, directly affecting GDP through construction, maintenance and renovation, as well as indirectly with notarial acts and banking transactions. Indeed, in many economies, residential building activity is at the heart of economic growth and, consequently, acts as a regulator in economic development. The main purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the significance of pursuing a suitable government policy on the real estate market. The research objectives are: a) to review the existing literature regarding the importance of the housing sector in the general economy; b) to “capture” the link between residential construction activity and economic development in Balkan Peninsula, pursuing supplementary research for the country of Albania; and c) to present the results of the aforementioned study in order to draw important conclusions.

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“…A frequent lament of property researchers is the quality and extent of available property market data (eg: Jones, 1995;Mitchell and McNamara, 1997;Tsolacos and McGough, 1999;Mueller, 2002;MacFarlane, Murray, Parker and Peng, 2002). In this instance, due to the lack of longer term CBD employment data, the scope of the study has been limited to annual data extending from 1980 to 2003.…”

Section: Source -Bis Shrapnelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Office Building Rental Growth Using a Dynamic Approach

Tonelli

Cowley

Boyd

2004

Pacific Rim Property Research Journal

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Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane office market. The adaptation of this model did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, this paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises.

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What Will the Next Real Estate Cycle Look Like?

Cited by 25 publications

References 9 publications

Evaluating Critical Factors Impacting Real Estate Development Decisions

Evaluating Critical Factors Impacting Real Estate Development Decisions

Housing Construction as a Leading Economic Indicator

Forecasting Office Building Rental Growth Using a Dynamic Approach

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