When confidence in a choice is independent of which choice is made

Abstract

), participants chose an answer to two-alternative general-information questions and indicated their confidence in that answer. Whereas previous studies focused on the determinants of the choice and, consequently, on the confidence in that choice, the present study examined a component of subjective confidence that correlates with properties of the items itself, no matter which answer is chosen.The item-based approach to the study of metacognitive judgments has proved useful in the past. According to this approach, some insight into the processes underlying metacognitive judgments and their accuracy can be gained by investigating systematic differences between memory items. This approach is based on the assumption that memory questions differ reliably in characteristics that are pertinent to metacognitive judgments, and that normative data, aggregated across participants, provide clues to the processes that occur within participants. Thus, in Koriat and Lieblich's (1977) study of the tip-of-the-tongue (TOT) states, word definitions were found to differ reliably in terms of two orthogonal dimensions: their likelihood of suggesting the correct memory target, and the extent to which they evoke a feeling of knowing (FOK). The analysis of items in terms of these dimensions provided information about the processes underlying FOK and TOT states, and laid the groundwork for Koriat's (1993) accessibility model of FOK judgments. Similarly, general-information questions were found to differ reliably in two properties among participants who provided an answer, and these properties predicted the magnitude and accuracy of FOK judgments among participants who failed to provide an answer to these questions (Koriat, 1995). Also, using two-alternative general-information questions, has documented a systematic correlation between subjective confidence in the answer and the percentage of participants who chose that answer: Consensually chosen answers elicited stronger confidence than nonconsensual answers, regardless of whether they were correct or wrong, implying that confidence is diagnostic of the correctness of the answer only when the consensually endorsed answer is the correct answer, as is generally the case. When the consensual answer was the wrong answer ("deceptive"; see Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977), this answer was endorsed with stronger confidence. Similar findings were reported by Brewer and Sampaio (2006), who also used an item-based approach to study confidence in memory for sentences.The present study focuses on another item-based correlation that I have observed over the years across several sets of data. Consider the recent study of Koriat (2008) just mentioned: Participants answered 105 questions and expressed their confidence on a 50%-100% scale. The questions had been selected to represent a wide dispersion in terms of the likelihood that participants would choose the correct answer, so that for some questions the consensually chosen answer would be the wrong answer.For the present study, I reanaly...

Choice latency as a cue for children’s subjective confidence in the correctness of their answers

“…Underlying much of the work in metacognition is the Monitoring → Control (MC) model, which assumes that metacognitive judgments (monitoring) drive and guide the strategic regulation of information processing and behaviour (control; Barnes, Nelson, Dunlosky, Mazzoni & Narens, 1999; Nelson & Narens, 1990; Son & Schwartz, 2002). Consistent with this model are findings suggesting that JOLs during self‐paced learning affect the allocation of study time (Dunlosky & Hertzog, 1998; Lockl & Schneider, 2003; Nelson & Leonesio, 1988), FOK judgments determine the amount of time spent searching for an elusive memory target before giving up, and confidence judgments in a belief or attitude determine whether people translate that belief or attitude into behaviour (Fischhoff, Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1977; Gill, Swann & Silvera, 1998; Goldsmith & Koriat, 2008; Koriat, 2008c). These findings suggest that metacognitive judgments are not mere epiphenomena but actually influence behaviour.…”

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: Insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

“…For example, recent work using general information questions showed that semantic cue familiarity (i.e., familiarity with the overall topic of the general information question) was associated with higher confidence not only for correct answers, but also for incorrect answers (e.g., a person who knew a lot about computers would be more confident on questions about computers(Koriat, 2008). In such paradigms, confidence judgments are based on semantic familiarity with the cue because participants rest on the belief that more knowledge about that topic means they are more accurate, yet this may be an irrelevant factor.…”

Modeling melody recognition using a sequence recognition neural network with meta-level processes

“…Dissociations between confidence and accuracy in experimental studies suggest the role of other factors in determining the confidence level, besides strength of the memory trace [24]- [25]. In an experimental task where subjects chose an answer to a question with two alternatives, Koriat [26] found that a higher level of familiarity about the question's domain can increase the subject's confidence level, independent of response accuracy. Based on the hypothesis that greater familiarity causes a higher level of confidence, we assumed that a meta-level recognition process computes the recognition point by monitoring (1) the WTA connectionist network used in finding the IP, as well as (2) the Familiarity Unit for measuring confidence.…”