When do smokers ‘underestimate’ smoking related mortality risks?

Costa‐Font, Joan; Rovira, Joan

doi:10.1080/13504850500190279

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…There is empirical evidence indicating that, if anything, smokers overestimate the probability that smoking will lead to adverse health outcomes and death Costa-Font and Rovira 2005;Khwaja et al 2009;Liu and Hsieh 1995;Viscusi 1990;1991;Viscusi et al 2000). Most of this evidence, however, which directly elicits probabilities of adverse health outcomes is for persons much older than the age at which the smoking habit is typically initiated.…”

Section: Previous Literaturementioning

confidence: 93%

Information, risk perceptions, and smoking choices of youth

Sloan

Platt

2011

J Risk Uncertain

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Section: Previous Literaturementioning

confidence: 93%

Information, risk perceptions, and smoking choices of youth

Sloan

Platt

2011

J Risk Uncertain

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Focusing and framing of risky alternatives

Dertwinkel-Kalt

Wenzel

2019

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the authors' own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the editor. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThis paper develops a theory of focusing and framing in an intertemporal context with risky choices. We provide a selection criterion between existing theories of focusing by allowing a decision maker to choose her frame such that her attention is either drawn to salient events associated with an option or to the expected utilities an option yields in different time periods. Our key assumption is that a decision maker can choose her frame in a self-serving manner. We predict that the selected frame induces overoptimistic actions in the sense that subjects underrate downside risk but overrate upside risk and accordingly reveal overoptimistic choices. Hence, our theory can explain phenomena such as excessive harmful consumption (smoking, unhealthy diet) and risky investments (entrepreneurship, lotteries, gambling) in one coherent framework. Notably, overoptimistic actions are not universal, but have plausible limits. We characterize under which situations overoptimistic actions are most likely to occur and under which circumstances choices should be rational or even pessimistic.JEL Classification: D03, D11, D90 Keywords: Focusing, Salience, Framing, Overoptimism. * We are grateful to the editor, three anonymous referees, Sophie Bade, Pedro Bordalo, Claudia Cerrone, Botond Kőszegi, Paul Heidhues, Nicola Gennaioli, Adam Szeidl, and Achim Wambach for their helpful suggestions. We also thank participants of the workshop on "Limited Attention" in Copenhagen, of the annual conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik in Münster, of the "Spring Meeting of Young Economists" in Ghent, and of the annual meeting of the EEA in Mannheim, as well as seminar participants in Bath, Cologne, Düs-seldorf, and at the Royal Holloway College for their helpful comments. In addition we are grateful to Mats Köster for research assistance. †

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