When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape

Abstract

Debate continues with regard to the possibility of inferring an offender's characteristic features from crime scene details (the process of so-called "offender profiling"). We argue that psychology generally has benefited from appreciating context in predicting behavior. In the same way, profiling would benefit from an appreciation of context in predicting characteristics. This "reverse" process is contingent on various "if...then" relationships. As one example, this paper demonstrates how profiling offender age from victim age is contingent on (i) the level of planning and (ii) the level of aggression displayed during the offense. Eighty-five stranger rape case records formed the data set. Moderated regression analysis revealed that victim age is a significant predictor of offender age only in cases where the offender has (i) shown evidence of planning the attack and/or (ii) acts in a gratuitously aggressive manner. The theoretical bases for these findings may lie in the extent to which offenders disparately plan and target victims and how extreme aggressiveness in stranger rapes may relate to a near-peer proxy for an offender's anger. The implications of the results for the processes and methods involved in offender profiling suggest that certain crime scene factors can have differential moderating effects on predictive outcomes.

What works in offender profiling? A comparison of typological, thematic, and multivariate models

“…We were careful to investigate the predictive ability of variables under the multivariate approach in relation to one another by using full logistic models; however, the extrapolation of single significant predictors is inevitable. Goodwill and Alison (2007) recently illustrated that bivariate relationships between crime scene information and offender characteristics can be dependent on the presence or absence of other behavioral, contextual, or situational aspects. Accordingly, Goodwill and Alison (2007) further suggest that the relationship between crime scene information and offender characteristics is likely to be a multifaceted one and interdependent with what other behavioral, contextual, or situational factors are present.…”

“…Goodwill and Alison (2007) recently illustrated that bivariate relationships between crime scene information and offender characteristics can be dependent on the presence or absence of other behavioral, contextual, or situational aspects. Accordingly, Goodwill and Alison (2007) further suggest that the relationship between crime scene information and offender characteristics is likely to be a multifaceted one and interdependent with what other behavioral, contextual, or situational factors are present. This point, circularly, is in fact the premise for the investigation and adoption of thematic and typological approaches: to account for the often found interdependence of behavior and situational complexity.…”

Rape and sexual assault in investigative psychology: the contribution of sex offenders' research to offender profiling

“…Other attempts at linking offense characteristics to sex offender characteristics have used either some forms of multidimensional scaling (Canter et al, 2003;Häkkänen, Lindlöf, & Santtila, 2004;Kocsis, Cooksey, & Irwin, 2002) or regression analyses (e.g. Beauregard, Lussier, & Proulx, 2007a;Goodwill & Alison, 2007;Scott et al, 2006). In this issue, ter Beek, van den Eshof, and Mali used logistic regression on a sample of 271 stranger rape offenses included in the ViCLAS database of The Netherlands, and found that crime characteristics can be used to 'profi le' offender characteristics, thus providing further weight to the A → C equations.…”

Perfil psicológico e comportamental de agressores sexuais de crianças

“…O perfil psicológico para identificar criminosos sexuais, embora utilizado por alguns pesquisadores, ainda requer melhor validação científica, visto que seus procedimentos são em sua maioria decorrentes de pesquisas empíricas 43 . Diante do quadro exposto, todavia, tal prática é muitas vezes necessária na esfera da psiquiatria e da psicologia forense, não só como forma de ampliação do conhecimento da dinâmica do indivíduo agressor, mas também contribuindo para a determinação da sua capacidade de entendimento e autocontrole.…”