When Predictions Fail: The Case of Unexpected Pathways Toward High School Dropout

Abstract

This study examines childhood variables that tend to deflect life-course trajectories away from finishing high school. We examined unexpectedly graduating in the presence of three empirical risk factors (having a mother that did not finish high school, being from a single-parent family in early childhood, and having repeated a grade in primary school) and unexpectedly not graduating in the absence these same factors (low risk). The comparison groups comprised individuals who expectedly did not graduate (first case) and expectedly graduated (second case). We found that having experienced all three factors practically guaranteed not finishing high school, thus defining a crystal clear target group for policy. Without screening, intervention, and follow-up, individuals facing such cumulative risk are most unlikely to graduate. We also found a group of males and females that did not finish high school despite not having these three risk factors. These missed estimates become nontrivial once they are translated into a population-level statistic of lost human capital investments. Specific family and individual factors helped explain the unexpected life course toward not finishing high school, especially for

Grade Retention and Seventh-Grade Depression Symptoms in the Course of School Dropout among High-Risk Adolescents

“…These inconsistent findings are surprising considering the large body of knowledge indicating that depression often co-occurs with academic difficulties (Fleming et al, 2005;Storvoll, Wichstrom, & Pape, 2003). The relationship between depression and grade retention (Asarnow et al, 2005;Fiske & Neuharth-Pritchett, 2007;Resnick et al, 1997), a serious risk factor of school dropout (Alexander, Entwisle, & Kabbani, 2001;Jimerson, Anderson, & Whipple, 2002;Pagani et al, 2008), is particularly noteworthy as it could help explain why children who face these issues are at increased risk for dropout. This study aims at understanding the relationship between depression and grade retention in the course of dropout Emotional distress and depression in adolescence are known to be associated with grade retention (Asarnow et al, 2005;Fiske & Neuharth-Pritchett, 2007;Resnick et al, 1997), one of the most important risk factors for school dropout.…”

“…This research also builds on a large body of knowledge showing the deleterious consequences of primary-school grade retention persist into late adolescence (Alexander et al, 2001;Jimerson et al, 2002;Pagani et al, 2008). The practical implications of these findings for high-risk children and adolescents are very significant.…”

“…This study aims at understanding the relationship between depression and grade retention in the course of dropout Emotional distress and depression in adolescence are known to be associated with grade retention (Asarnow et al, 2005;Fiske & Neuharth-Pritchett, 2007;Resnick et al, 1997), one of the most important risk factors for school dropout. The effect of retention on dropout has been found to be very persistent and generally outweighing other risks (Alexander et al, 2001;Jimerson et al, 2002;Pagani et al, 2008). Children and adolescents who have been held behind present multiple risk behaviors, including emotional distress, that require a closer examination (Resnick et al, 1997).…”

La perception différenciée de la relation élève-enseignant par les élèves à risque et non à risque de décrochage scolaire

“…En effet, la faible réussite revient fréquemment comme facteur prédisant le décrochage (Battin-Pearson et al, 2000;Bowers et Sprott, 2012;Fortin et al, 2004;O'Connell et Sheikh, 2009). Les résultats des études montrent aussi que l'absentéisme, les suspensions et l'expulsion, le redoublement, le manque d'engagement et le peu d'affiliation ou l'affiliation à des pairs déviants permettent de prédire le départ prématuré du milieu scolaire (Carpenter et Ramirez, 2007;Henry, Knight et Thornberry, 2012;O'Connell et Sheikh, 2009;Pagani, Vitaro, Tremblay, McDuff, Japel et Larose, 2008). Les problèmes de discipline ou de comportement à l'école ainsi que la relation négative avec l'enseignant sont également associés au décrochage (Hickman, Bartholomew, Mathwig et Heinrich, 2008;Trampush, Miller, Newcorn et Halperin, 2009;Whannell et allen, 2011).…”

Ready or not: Kindergarten classroom engagement as an indicator of child school readiness

“…Accumulating evidence suggests these skills can reliably predict later academic performance (McClelland, Acock & Morrison, 2006;McWayne, Fantuzzo & McDermott, 2004;Pagani et al, 2008). In the following section we review evidence supporting an association between kindergarten classroom engagement skills and achievement in later elementary school.…”