When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Kawa, S. R.; Montzka, S. A.; Schauffler, S.

doi:10.1029/2005gl025232

Cited by 175 publications

(251 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

228

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…However, WMO (2014) values are based on Newman et al (2006) and do not include the recent correction by Ostermöller et al (2017). What is also noteworthy from Figure 5 is that the discrepancy between the FRF-mean age correlations derived by Newman et al (2006) and Laube et al (2013) largely 425 disappears with our updates. This confirms the suspicion mentioned in Laube et al (2013) that this discrepancy might predominantly arise from the use of different age tracers (Newman et al used CO2-derived mean ages).…”

Section: C Ozone Depletion Potentials Derived From New Age Tracersmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Chem. Phys., 6, 267-282, doi: 10.5194/acp-6-267-2006, 2006 Engel, A., Möbius, T., Bönisch, H., Schmidt, U., Heinz, R., Levin, I., Atlas, E., Aoki, S., Nakazawa, T., Sugawara, S., Moore, F., Hurst, D., Elkins, J., Schauffler, S., Andrews, A. and Boering, K.: Age of stratospheric air unchanged within uncertainties over the past 30 years, Nat. Geosci., 2(1), 28-31, doi:10.1038/ngeo388, 2009.…”

Section: Competing Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Phys. (2017) for OB09, K2010 and K2011, compared to previously published K2010 and K2011 data and FRFs-mean age correlations from Newman et al (2006). Shown for three compound case studies, see details in main manuscript.…”

Section: Competing Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…AoA is perhaps best known for being a proxy for the rate of the stratospheric mean meridional circulation, the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), as well as being used to determine 5 air mass fluxes between the troposphere and stratosphere (Bönisch et al, 2009). It is also used in calculations to determine the state of recovery of the ozone layer via its role in calculations of stratospheric lifetimes, Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs) (Brown et al, 2013;Laube et al, 2013;Volk et al, 1997) and Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (Newman et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Evaluation of stratospheric age-of-air from CF4, C2F6, C3F8, CHF3, HFC-125, HFC-227ea and SF6; implications for the calculations of halocarbon lifetimes, fractional release factors and ozone depletion potentials

Elvidge¹,

Bönisch²,

Brenninkmeijer³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In a changing climate, potential stratospheric circulation changes require long-term monitoring. Stratospheric trace gas measurements are often used as a proxy for stratospheric circulation changes via the 'mean age of air' values derived from them. In this study, we investigated five potential age of air tracers -the perfluorocarbons CF4, C2F6 and C3F8 and the hydrofluorocarbons CHF3 (HFC-23) and HFC-125 -and compare them to the traditional tracer SF6 and a (relatively) shorter-lived species, HFC-227ea. A detailed uncertainty analysis was performed on mean ages derived from these 'new' tracers to allow us to confidently compare their efficacy as age tracers to the existing tracer, SF6. Our results showed that uncertainties associated with the mean age derived from these new age tracers are similar to those derived from SF6, suggesting these alternative compounds are suitable, in this respect, for use as age tracers. Independent verification of the suitability of these age tracers is provided by a comparison between samples analysed at the University of East Anglia and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. All five tracers give younger mean ages than SF6, a discrepancy that increases with increasing mean age. Our findings qualitatively support recent work that suggests the stratospheric lifetime of SF6 is significantly less than the previous estimate of 3200 years. The impact of these younger mean ages on three policy-relevant parameters -stratospheric lifetimes, Fractional Release Factors (FRFs), and Ozone Depletion Potentials -is investigated in combination with a recently improved methodology to calculate FRFs. Updates to previous estimations for these parameters are provided.Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi

show abstract

Section: C Ozone Depletion Potentials Derived From New Age Tracersmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Competing Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Competing Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Evaluation of stratospheric age-of-air from CF4, C2F6, C3F8, CHF3, HFC-125, HFC-227ea and SF6; implications for the calculations of halocarbon lifetimes, fractional release factors and ozone depletion potentials

Elvidge¹,

Bönisch²,

Brenninkmeijer³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The depletion of the stratospheric ozone since the late 1970s has led to a small cooling over much of the Antarctic continent. However, the first signs of the recovery of the ozone hole have now been confirmed (Solomon et al, 2016), and the concentrations of stratospheric ozone are expected to recover to pre-ozone hole levels in the 2050-2070 time-frame (Newman et al, 2006). Both the recovery of the ozone hole and an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to result in atmospheric warming, with most models that include both effects indicating a magnitude of warming less than the global mean at the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2013).…”

Section: Expected Changes In Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 92%

Advection in polar and sub-polar environments: Impacts on high latitude marine ecosystems

Hunt

Drinkwater

Arrigo

et al. 2016

Progress in Oceanography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tWe compare and contrast the ecological impacts of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on polar and sub-polar marine ecosystems. Circulation patterns differ strikingly between the north and south. Meridional circulation in the north provides connections between the sub-Arctic and Arctic despite the presence of encircling continental landmasses, whereas annular circulation patterns in the south tend to isolate Antarctic surface waters from those in the north. These differences influence fundamental aspects of the polar ecosystems from the amount, thickness and duration of sea ice, to the types of organisms, and the ecology of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Meridional flows in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans transport heat, nutrients, and plankton northward into the Chukchi Sea, the Barents Sea, and the seas off the west coast of Greenland. In the North Atlantic, the advected heat warms the waters of the southern Barents Sea and, with advected nutrients and plankton, supports immense biomasses of fish, seabirds and marine mammals. On the Pacific side of the Arctic, cold waters flowing northward across the northern Bering and Chukchi seas during winter and spring limit the ability of boreal fish species to take advantage of high seasonal production there. Southward flow of cold Arctic waters into sub-Arctic regions of the North Atlantic occurs mainly through Fram Strait with less through the Barents Sea and the Canadian Archipelago. In the Pacific, the transport of Arctic waters and plankton southward through Bering Strait is minimal.In the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its associated fronts are barriers to the southward dispersal of plankton and pelagic fishes from sub-Antarctic waters, with the consequent evolution of Antarctic zooplankton and fish species largely occurring in isolation from those to the north. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current also disperses biota throughout the Southern Ocean, and as a result, the biota tends to be similar within a given broad latitudinal band. South of the Southern Boundary of the ACC, there is a large-scale divergence that brings nutrient-rich water to the surface. This divergence, along with more localized upwelling regions and deep vertical convection in winter, generates elevated nutrient levels throughout the Antarctic at the end of austral winter. However, such elevated nutrient levels do not support elevated phytoplankton productivity through the entire Southern Ocean, as iron concentrations are rapidly removed to limiting levels by spring blooms in deep waters. However, coastal http://dx

show abstract

SPARC Data Initiative: A comparison of ozone climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

et al. 2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

[1] A comprehensive quality assessment of the ozone products from 18 limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The ozone climatologies in form of monthly zonal mean time series covering the upper troposphere to lower mesosphere are obtained from LIMS, SAGE I/II/III, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM II/III, SMR, OSIRIS, MIPAS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, ACE-MAESTRO, Aura-MLS, HIRDLS, and SMILES within 1978-2010. The intercomparisons focus on mean biases of annual zonal mean fields, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles. Additionally, the physical consistency of the data is tested through diagnostics of the quasi-biennial oscillation and Antarctic ozone hole. The comprehensive evaluations reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric ozone mean state is smallest in the tropical and midlatitude middle stratosphere with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of less than ±5%. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the stratosphere, individual discrepancies have been identified, including unrealistic month-to-month fluctuations, large biases in particular atmospheric regions, or inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Notable differences between the data sets exist in the tropical lower stratosphere (with a spread of ±30%) and at high latitudes (±15%). In particular, large relative differences are identified in the Antarctic during the time of the ozone hole, with a spread between the monthly zonal mean fields of ±50%. The evaluations provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of ozone variability, model-measurement comparisons, detection of long-term trends, and data-merging activities.

show abstract

When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?

Cited by 175 publications

References 18 publications

Evaluation of stratospheric age-of-air from CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>, C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>, CHF<sub>3</sub>, HFC-125, HFC-227ea and SF<sub>6</sub>; implications for the calculations of halocarbon lifetimes, fractional release factors and ozone depletion potentials

Evaluation of stratospheric age-of-air from CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>, C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>, CHF<sub>3</sub>, HFC-125, HFC-227ea and SF<sub>6</sub>; implications for the calculations of halocarbon lifetimes, fractional release factors and ozone depletion potentials

Advection in polar and sub-polar environments: Impacts on high latitude marine ecosystems

SPARC Data Initiative: A comparison of ozone climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About