Where Do Migrants from Countries Ridden by Environmental Conflict Settle? On the Scale, Selection and Sorting of Conflict-Induced Migration

Abstract

Environmentally induced conflicts can trigger migration. This paper analyzes the location decisions of migrants, i.e., the 'sorting' of migrants into alternative destinations. We argue that this sorting depends on a variety of factors. The selection of migrants affects preferences over where to settle and depends on the underlying type of environmentally induced conflict. In addition to (transport-related) migration costs, migration governance shapes the sorting pattern of migrants. Immigration policies in destination countries impose further costs to migration or even prevent settlement. At the same time, national immigration policies depend on the 'supply' of migrants that are expected to arrive, as well as on other countries' policies regarding immigration. In addition, coordination failure of destination countries may feed back to the sorting decisions of migrants. The chapter discusses sorting not only from a theoretically but also empirical perspective, thereby highlighting both existing studies on sorting and the empirical challenges to analyzing sorting behavior in the context of migration that is induced by environmental conflict.