Where have all the lions gone? Establishing realistic baselines to assess decline and recovery of African lions

Abstract

Aim: Predict empirically the current and recent historical (c1970) landscape connectivity and population size of the African lion as a baseline against which to assess conservation of the species.Location: Continental Africa. Methods:We compiled historical records of lion distribution to generate a recent historical range for the species. Historical population size was predicted using a generalized additive model. Resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path analyses were used to predict recent historical landscape connectivity and compare this with contemporary connectivity at continental, regional and country scales.Results: We estimate a baseline population of ~92,054 (83,017-101,094 95% CI) lions in c1970, suggesting Africa's lion population has declined by ~75%, over the last five decades. Although greatly reduced from historical extents (c1500AD), recent historical lion habitat was substantially connected. However, in comparison, contemporary population connectivity has declined dramatically, with many populations now isolated, as well as large declines within remaining population core areas. This decline was most marked in the West and Central region, with a 90% decline in connected habitat compared with its c1970 extent. The Eastern and Southern regions have experienced lower, though significant, declines in connected habitat (44% and 55%, respectively). Contemporary populations are connected by three non-core habitat linkages and 15 potential corridors (spanning unconnected habitat) that may allow dispersal and gene flow. Declining connectivity mirrors recent studies showing loss of genetic diversity and increasing genetic isolation of lion populations. Main conclusions:We provide an empirically derived baseline for African lion population size, habitat extent and connectivity in c1970 and at present against which to evaluate contemporary conservation of the species, avoiding a shifting baseline syndrome where conservation success/failure is measured only against recent population size or range. We recommend priorities for conservation of existing connections to avoid further fragmentation.

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land‐use change

“…Other large carnivores, such as lions ( Panthera leo ) and tigers ( Panthera tigris ), are predicted to experience similar range losses (Ebrahimi et al., 2021 ; Kc et al., 2020 ; Loveridge, Sousa, Seymour‐Smith, et al., 2022 ). Decreased connectivity is causing loss of genetic diversity and increasing isolation of populations (Loveridge, Sousa, Cushman, et al., 2022 ). Consequences are affecting whole communities, with reduced species ranges, changes in abundance, richness and diversity and reduced juvenile survival (Kupika et al., 2018 ).…”

Tradeoffs between resources and risks shape the responses of a large carnivore to human disturbance

“…Our findings expand upon previous calls to dedicate adequate funding and management capacity to protected areas harboring lions 49 , 71 , while engaging with and empowering local communities to invest in conservation initiatives 72 , 73 . In particular, we emphasize the need to protect areas that are projected to be refugia from both climate risks and human expansion, as well as corridors that connect suitable lion habitats 46 , 74 .…”

“…We investigated the spatiotemporal responses of lions ( Panthera leo ) to human disturbances across their range. Almost half of the current range of lions lies outside of protected area boundaries, requiring lions to regularly navigate degraded human-dominated landscapes 44 – 46 . Accelerating human population growth across Africa (particularly near protected areas) and expanding agricultural lands will intensify the human-lion interface and potential conflicts due to livestock depredation 47 , 48 .…”

Genetic diversity of lion populations in Kenya: Evaluating past management practices and recommendations for future conservation actions

“…However, their population size has declined dramatically in recent decades due to anthropogenic activities (Bauer et al., 2015 ; Riggio et al., 2013 ). These activities have disrupted the once‐connected network of lion populations, resulting in a loss of approximately 50% of connected habitats within the eastern and southern African regions and a 65% population decline in East Africa in the last half century (Loveridge et al., 2022 ). Consequently, to safeguard the remaining lion populations and their habitats fencing of wildlife areas, although contentious, has increasingly become a popular conservation strategy (Creel et al., 2013 ; Lindsey et al., 2017 ; Packer et al., 2013 ).…”