Where have Ukrainian refugees gone? Identifying potential settlement areas across European regions integrating digital and traditional geographic data

Abstract

The escalation of conflict in Ukraine has triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. As of early April 2024, over 5.9 million people have fled Ukraine. Large‐scale efforts have been made to identify the major receiving countries. However, less is known about the subnational areas within host countries where refugees have migrated. Identifying these areas is key for the appropriate allocation of humanitarian aid. By combining digital Facebook API data and traditional data from Eurostat, this paper aims to identify and characterise potential settlement areas of Ukrainians across the main destination countries in Europe. We identify high concentrations of Ukrainians in urban areas with a preexisting diaspora and tight labour market conditions across southern, northern‐west and central Poland and the city of Prague in the Czech Republic. We also find potential settlements in key urban agglomerations with a moderate diaspora and high levels of unemployment in Spain. Only in Romania, refugees seem to have settled in rural areas which show a moderate diaspora but low levels of unemployment. Potential settlement areas in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom are spread across the country. Surprisingly, we do not identify potential settlement areas in bordering regions with Ukraine within neighbouring countries, suggesting that refugees may have used them as transit points. Our findings point out that different packages of humanitarian assistance may be needed according to the number of refugees and the characteristics of settlement areas.

Ukrainian Refugees in Switzerland: A research synthesis of what we know

“…Overall, there is a concentration in cities with larger existing Ukrainian diasporas, notably so in Poland and the Czech Republic. In other countries, the association is less pronounced, such as in Spain where there is a clustering around the capital, or in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom where greater geographical spread can be observed (González-Leonardo et al 2024). There is no clustering immediately around the border with Ukraine (González-Leonardo et al 2024).…”

“…In other countries, the association is less pronounced, such as in Spain where there is a clustering around the capital, or in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom where greater geographical spread can be observed (González-Leonardo et al 2024). There is no clustering immediately around the border with Ukraine (González-Leonardo et al 2024). Status "S" does not only include Ukrainian citizens, but also individuals with different nationality who lived in Ukraine at the moment of the full invasion or family members.…”