Where is the future of China’s biogas? Review, forecast, and policy implications

Abstract

This paper discusses the history and present status of different categories of biogas production in China, most of which are classified into rural household production, agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-based engineering production. To evaluate the future biogas production of China, five models including the Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng model, the H-C-Z model, and the Grey model are applied to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each province and the entire country. It is proved that those models which originated from oil research can also be applied to other energy sources. The simulation results reveal that China's total biogas production is unlikely to keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official department. In addition, China's biogas production will present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future. This paper will give preliminary explanation for the regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies and strategies to promote the development of the biogas industry in China.

Prospects of Bioenergy Cropping Systems for A More Social-Ecologically Sound Bioeconomy

“…The roll-out of decentralized biogas production started more than a century ago with the aim of increasing energy security in rural areas. The development peaked during the 1970s and resulted in the installation of about 43 million digesters by 2013 [263]. Today, Chinese energy development policies still focus on biodigestion.…”

“…Today, Chinese energy development policies still focus on biodigestion. The aim is to increase biogas production from 16 Gm 3 in 2013 to 44 Gm 3 by 2020, also including centralized large-scale biodigesters [263]. India followed from the 1980s onwards with the National Biogas and Manure Management Programme, leading to the successful installation of 4.75 million biodigesters by 2014 [264] (Figure 7).…”

Estimativa Da Produção De Biogás E Energia Decorrentes Da Suinocultura Brasileira

“…Conforme afirmam Gu et al (2016) havia na China 41,8 milhões de biodigestores domésticos na área rural com estimativa de um total de aproximadamente 13,2 bilhões de m³ de biogás produzidos. Dessa forma, somente a produção de biogás doméstico, superou a produção estimada para o Brasil, isto se justifica pela procura cada vez mais por fontes de energias renováveis em países desenvolvidos como a China, buscando a diminuição dos gases poluentes e o cumprimento de acordos assinados com a comunidade mundial visando diminuir a emissão de gases que provocam o efeito estufa.…”

A Review of Commercial Biogas Systems and Lessons for Africa

“…Among the economic policies were financial support and interest-free loans for both small, medium and large biogas plants, with supports of 20,000 CNY or approximately US$ 2937 (at 1 US$ = 6.81 CNY; www.xe.com, 24 July 2018) per 100 m 3 of large-and medium-scale [92]. After 2009, the subsidy programme was enhanced, with the central government covering 25% to 45% of the total cost of biogas projects, and setting up policies similar to FiTs [94]. This consisted of a state special fund and additional renewable energy surcharge of 0.002 CNY per kWh in the sale price of power, which is used to provide a premium price for power from renewable energy generally.…”