Where is the party? Explaining positions on same-sex marriage in Europe among would-be members of parliament

Abstract

The rapid adoption of marriage equality legislation for non-heterosexual individuals in Europe is attributed to many factors, including dramatic shifts in public opinion, the work of transnational activists and changing international norms. Usually, these factors must be filtered through the halls of parliaments where most policy change happens. Given the importance of parliamentarians’ attitudes, it is surprising that we know so little about how attitudes towards same-sex marriage are distributed across political candidates in Europe and what factors shape them. This article fills that gap by using an underutilised dataset on the political preferences of candidates for parliamentary office. We find that beyond attachment to party families, a candidate’s religiosity and practice has a greater effect on a would-be Member of Parliament’s attitudes towards same-sex marriage. The findings suggest that the success of parliamentary action on lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights depends not on the partisan composition of the legislature, but rather on the representation of secular candidates.<br /><br />Key messages<br /><ul><li>Support among parliamentary candidates aspiring to become legislators is an important prerequisite for the advancement of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights in polities where institutional equality is brought about via legislative reforms.</li><br /><li>Over and above partisanship attachment and ideological positions, the religiosity of would-be Members of Parliament is important in establishing support for same-sex marriage.</li><br /><li>The secular composition of legislative chambers, rather than its partisan composition, is more likely to predict the success of the advancement of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights.</li></ul>

“Protect the women!” Trans‐exclusionary feminist issue framing and support for transgender rights

“…A large proportion—31%—express ambivalence, communicating that they neither agree nor disagree with reform. We agree with Siegel et al (2021), however, who argue that “indifference” toward LGBT+ rights expansion is equitable to opposition as a lack of explicit support is indicative of an endorsement of the status quo. These top‐line fingers demonstrate that, on average, public support for the proposed GRA reform, which includes plans to allow for self‐ID, is weaker than public opposition.…”

“…To answer our second research question, we model the correlation between a wide catalog of socio‐demographic and political determinants that the literature establishes as important predictors of both diffuse and specific LGBT+ support. Cross‐national analysis assessing tolerance toward homosexuality, support for gay rights issues such as same‐gender adoption and parenting (Dotti Sani et al, 2020), evidence from plebiscites and studies of policy‐makers' preferences (Siegel et al, 2021), all demonstrate a consistent finding: women are more inclined to sympathize with LGBT+ individuals and support LGBT+ rights over men. In spite of the wave of trans‐exclusionary (gender‐critical) rhetoric, we expect to observe a similar gender premium on support for the right to self‐ID.…”

“…T A B L E 1 Treatment text and outcome measurement uality, support for gay rights issues such as same-gender adoption and parenting (Dotti Sani et al, 2020), evidence from plebiscites and studies of policy-makers' preferences (Siegel et al, 2021), all demonstrate a consistent finding: women are more inclined to sympathize with LGBT+ individuals and support LGBT+ rights over men. In spite of the wave of trans-exclusionary (gender-critical) rhetoric, we expect to observe a similar gender premium on support for the right to self-ID.…”

“…The newly elected Holyrood parliament is likely to vote on reforming the Gender Recognition Act-a piece of legislation that aims to make it easier and cheaper for transgender individuals to legally change the sex on their birth certificate without medical approval Feminist Some feminist organizations have communicated serious concern over the bill, arguing that allowing transgender women to class themselves as female might be detrimental to women's welfare Conservative Some conservative organizations have communicated serious concern over the bill, arguing that allowing transgender women to class themselves as female might be detrimental to women's welfare Question How much do you agree with the following statement? : "Transgender people should be able to change the sex on their birth certificate via statutory declaration, without a medical certificate, after six months of living as the gender they identify with" uality, support for gay rights issues such as same-gender adoption and parenting (Dotti Sani et al, 2020), evidence from plebiscites and studies of policy-makers' preferences (Siegel et al, 2021), all demonstrate a consistent finding: women are more inclined to sympathize with LGBT+ individuals and support LGBT+ rights over men. In spite of the wave of trans-exclusionary (gender-critical) rhetoric, we expect to observe a similar gender premium on support for the right to self-ID.…”

“…The Commission's decision can be read at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lgb-alliance/lgb-alliance-full-decision.10 The correlation between the two ideological measures, while significant, is marginal (β = 0.05) as reported in FigureA1.11 Our pre-analysis plan stipulated that we would also consider the effects of religiosity measured via self-reported levels of religious attendance. Religiosity is a strong predictor of mass(Janssen & Scheepers, 2019) and elite(Siegel et al, 2021) opinion on LGBT+ rights. The SES question on religious attendance was only submitted to a random subsample of respondents and, subsequently, including this variable reduces are overall sample to less than 700 respondents.…”