Which interventions work best in a pandemic?

Haushofer, Johannes; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.

doi:10.1126/science.abb6144

Cited by 144 publications

(140 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., social distancing, hand washing, universal masking) are the only measures currently available to limit the spread of COVID-19 [34], while contact tracing and isolation have been implemented to contain infected individuals [35]. Simulation results [35] showed that a COVID-19 outbreak can be controlled within 3 months if such strategies are put in place rapidly and effectively.…”

Section: Sub-national Dynamics and Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics

et al. 2020

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The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number R o inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled R o = 4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of R o = 2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of 'super-spreaders' on the inference of R o are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled R o are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in R o > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19.

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Section: Sub-national Dynamics and Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics

et al. 2020

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“…Os resultados da intervenção, por ora apresentados, comungam com diversos estudos preventivos sobre o aumento de transmissão da COVID-19, a exemplo disso, as intervenções não farmacológicas, das quais constam medidas comportamentais (Haushofer & Metcalf, 2020), como higienizar as mãos, principalmente ao tossir e espirrar, fazer o uso de máscaras e evitar aglomerações (Silva et al, 2020;Sales et al, 2020), ações que têm maior possibilidade de transmissibilidade.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Estratificação do Grau de vulnerabilidade à doença pelo novo coronavírus (COVID-19) em territórios adscritos da Estratégia da Saúde da Família no Município de Crato, Ceará

Andrade

Fernandes

Pereira

et al. 2020

RSD

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Estratificar o grau de vulnerabilidade relacionada ao novo coronavirus nas famílias do território adscrito de duas Estratégias Saúde da Família (ESF) e descrever intervenções preventivas realizadas junto às famílias mais vulneráveis. Trata-se um estudo descritivo transversal, realizado no município de Crato, Ceará, Brasil, durante os meses de abril a julho de 2020. Em uma das ESF, 512 famílias foram classificadas de acordo com seu grau de vulnerabilidade, sendo que, 74 (14,4%) eram de alto grau, 285 (55,7%) médio grau e 153 (29,9%) baixo grau. Na segunda ESF foram classificadas 253 famílias sendo 19 (7,5%) de alto grau, 149 (58,9%) médio grau e 85 (33,6%) no baixo grau de vulnerabilidade. A intervenção junto às famílias mais vulneráveis ocorreu através de visitas domiciliares e ações educativas, baseada no grau de vulnerabilidade e direcionada às famílias mais vulnerabilidade. O estudo da vulnerabilidade relacionada ao novo coronavírus no território justificou a elaboração de intervenções preventivas de caráter formativo.

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“…We assumed a price per test from $1200 to $7500 mxn-from $53 to $332 usd 27 . Finally, we use the randomized controlled trails (RCTs) approximation in our model to show its importance and practical implementation in local indoor environments for reducing the virus transmission 28 . For example, different sizes of workplaces, based on the number of workers indoors, can randomly choose individuals and keep track of their testing results and contact tracing to monitor data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intervention strategies with 2D cellular automata for testing SARS-CoV-2 and reopening the economy

Lugo

Alatriste‐Contreras

2020

Preprint

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Abstract During the period of time between a new disease outbreaks and its vaccine is deployed, the health and the economic systems have to find a testing strategy for reopening activities. In particular, asymptomatic individuals, who transmit locally the covid-19 indoors, have to be identified and isolated. We proposed a 2D cellular automaton based on the SI epidemic model for selecting the most desirable testing frequency and identifying the best fitting size of random trails on local urban environments to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 and isolate infected people. We used the complex systems approach to face the challenge of a large-scale test strategy based on urban interventions, starting with first responders and essential workers. We used the case of Mexico to exemplify a credible and intelligent intervention that reduces the virus transmission and detects economic and health costs. Findings suggest that controlling and stopping the virus transmission in a short period of time are possible if the frequency of testing is daily and the percentage of random samples to be tested is at least 90%. This combination of model parameters represents the least expensive intervention compared to others. Therefore, the key for a national testing-isolating strategy is local interventions.

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Which interventions work best in a pandemic?

Abstract: Circles on the grounds of San Francisco's Dolores Park are designed to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by encouraging social distancing.

Cited by 144 publications

References 14 publications

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics

Estratificação do Grau de vulnerabilidade à doença pelo novo coronavírus (COVID-19) em territórios adscritos da Estratégia da Saúde da Família no Município de Crato, Ceará

Intervention strategies with 2D cellular automata for testing SARS-CoV-2 and reopening the economy

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