Which Measures are Effective in Containing COVID-19? — Empirical Research Based on Prevention and Control Cases in China

Abstract

Various epidemic prevention and control measures aimed at reducing person-to-person contact has paid a certain cost while controlling the epidemic. So accurate evaluation of these measures helps to maximize the effectiveness of prevention and control while minimizing social costs. In this paper, we develop the model in Dirk Brockmann and Dirk Helbing (2013) to theoretically explain the impact mechanism of traffic control and social distancing measures on the spread of the epidemic, and empirically tests the effect of the two measures in China at the present stage using econometric approach. We found that both traffic control and social distancing measures have played a very good role in controlling the development of the epidemic. Nationally, social distancing measures are better than traffic control measures; the two measures are complementary and their combined action will play a better epidemic prevention effect; Traffic control and social distancing do not work everywhere. Traffic control only works in cities with higher GDP per capita and population size, while fails in cities with lower GDP per capita and population size. In cities with lower population size, social distancing becomes inoperative; the rapid and accurate transmission of information, a higher protection awareness of the public, and a stronger confidence of residents in epidemic prevention can promote the realization of the measure effects. The findings above verify the effectiveness and correctness of the measures implemented in China at present, at the same time, we propose that it is necessary to fully consider the respective characteristics of the two measures, cooperating and complementing each other; what's more, measures should be formulated according to the city's own situation, achieving precise epidemic prevention; Finally, we should increase the transparency of information, improve protection awareness of the public, guide emotions of the public in a proper way, enhancing public confidence.

State-level variation of initial COVID-19 dynamics in the United States

“…In addition, outbreaks have been reported as schools, including college campuses, have reopened [2]. Country-level results, however, hide underlying dynamics within each state [8,9].…”

COVID-19 Outbreak in Colombia: An Analysis of Its Impacts on Transport Systems

“…After travel restrictions, countries adopted some other sets of measures to contain COVID-19 spread. Isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and community containment were among these measures [20]. Statistical models to estimate the probability of COVID-19 spreading from Wuhan to other cities in China before the quarantine [21] supported the necessity of implementing such measures.…”

Country distancing increase reveals the effectiveness of travel restrictions in stopping COVID-19 transmission

“…the arrival time (T m ) and the infected cases (I m ) in an arbitrary geographical area m. Increasing evidence shows that human mobility determines arrival times 8,15,35 and infected cases when there is only one OL. However, these approaches are not suitable for the presence of multiple OLs because it is unclear how each OL contributes to the arrival time and infected cases in a geographical area.…”

“…On the other hand, the OL's aggregate mobility outflow has also been a vital predictor for the cumulative number of infections in the destination location 33 , validated by the Wuhan's outflow to each prefecture in mainland China. Despite advances of both approaches and their follow-up methods 8,34,35 , they are more suitable for the early stage of the pandemic of COVID-19 than the late stage when multiple OLs arise, increasing the level of complexity that promotes the needs of new mathematical tools.…”