White knights, or horsemen of the apocalypse? Prospects for Big Oil to align emissions with a 1.5 °C pathway

Kenner, Dario; Heede, Richard

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102049

Cited by 69 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…This carries vast implications for fossil fuel producers. Twenty fossil fuel companies are responsible for 35% of all energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane emissions worldwide since 1965 [ 2 , 3 ]. The leading investor-owned emitter is Chevron, followed closely by Exxon, BP, and Shell.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The leading investor-owned emitter is Chevron, followed closely by Exxon, BP, and Shell. The products of these four energy giants account for more than 10% of global carbon emissions since 1965 [ 2 , 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many have announced various targets to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from operations or products [ 21 ] while stating public support for carbon pricing [ 22 , 23 ]. Some—such as BP and Repsol—even claim to be transitioning to clean energy [ 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multiple majors have tried to shift the responsibility for climate change onto consumers (BP’s promotion of reducing individual carbon footprints is one example) [ 25 , 27 , 28 ]. The biggest American and European majors have also spent millions lobbying to delay or weaken climate policy [ 3 , 15 , 29 ]. Recently, oil majors are observed to be using advertising on social media platforms to influence public opinion and promote an image of green fossil fuels [ 30 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, oil majors are observed to be using advertising on social media platforms to influence public opinion and promote an image of green fossil fuels [ 30 ]. Research [ 3 , 31 ] finds that even the most ambitious majors are simply mitigating future carbon risks by diversifying energy products rather than pursuing company-wide decarbonization. Given this track record, decarbonization claims by oil majors have been critiqued as “greenwashing” [ 32 – 34 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments

Trencher

Asuka

2022

PLoS ONE

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The energy products of oil and gas majors have contributed significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and planetary warming over the past century. Decarbonizing the global economy by mid-century to avoid dangerous climate change thus cannot occur without a profound transformation of their fossil fuel-based business models. Recently, several majors are increasingly discussing clean energy and climate change, pledging decarbonization strategies, and investing in alternative energies. Some even claim to be transforming into clean energy companies. Given a history of obstructive climate actions and “greenwashing”, there is a need to objectively evaluate current and historical decarbonization efforts and investment behavior. This study focuses on two American (Chevron, ExxonMobil) and two European majors (BP, Shell). Using data collected over 2009–2020, we comparatively examine the extent of decarbonization and clean energy transition activity from three perspectives: (1) keyword use in annual reports (discourse); (2) business strategies (pledges and actions); and (3) production, expenditures and earnings for fossil fuels along with investments in clean energy (investments). We found a strong increase in discourse related to “climate”, “low-carbon” and “transition”, especially by BP and Shell. Similarly, we observed increasing tendencies toward strategies related to decarbonization and clean energy. But these are dominated by pledges rather than concrete actions. Moreover, the financial analysis reveals a continuing business model dependence on fossil fuels along with insignificant and opaque spending on clean energy. We thus conclude that the transition to clean energy business models is not occurring, since the magnitude of investments and actions does not match discourse. Until actions and investment behavior are brought into alignment with discourse, accusations of greenwashing appear well-founded.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments

Trencher

Asuka

2022

PLoS ONE

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Reflecting the energy transition from a European perspective and in the global context—Relevance of solar photovoltaics benchmarking two ambitious scenarios

Breyer

Bogdanov

Ram

et al. 2022

Progress in Photovoltaics

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Multiple energy‐related crises require a fast transition towards a sustainable energy system. The European Green Deal aims for zero CO2 emission by 2050, while accelerating climate change impacts obligate a faster phase‐out of fossil fuels. Energy transition studies for Europe at and near 100% renewable energy are used as a benchmark for two newly introduced scenarios for Europe reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and 2040. A technology‐rich energy system model was applied in hourly resolution for Europe in 20 interconnected regions and in full sector coupling covering all energy demands. The results reveal a cost‐neutral energy transition towards 2050 based on declining levelised cost of electricity and a pathway with 9% higher energy costs leading to 17% lower total CO2 emissions with an accelerated energy transition by 2040. The two scenarios find shares of solar photovoltaic (PV) in total generation of 61%–63% by 2050, the highest ever estimated for Europe, still below the highest global average shares ranging between 75% and 77% form three independent studies. The central energy system components are solar PV, wind power, batteries, electrolysers and CO2 direct air capture for carbon capture and utilisation. The core characteristic of the European energy future may be best described by a power‐to‐X economy, which may evolve on the global scale to a solar‐to‐X economy.

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Designing the mid‐transition: A review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States

Grubert

Hastings‐Simon

2022

WIREs Climate Change

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Decarbonizing the energy system is critical for addressing climate change. Given the dominance of fossil fuels in the energy system, decarbonization requires rapid and significant industrial transition of the energy supply at scale. This includes explicit and coordinated plans not only for zero carbon phase-in, but for fossil carbon phase-out. Even very rapid decarbonization will likely take decades, leading to a medium-term future where the conventional, fossil-based energy system coexists with a new, zero-carbon energy system. Each imposes operational constraints on the other: what we call the mid-transition. Notably, this coexistence means that the new, zero-carbon system will develop under fossil carbon system constraints. The mid-transition will therefore likely require specific analytical metrics designed to support decision making under dynamic and uncertain conditions. Many aspects of transition will be felt, and shaped, directly by individuals because of our direct interactions with energy systems.Even rare missteps are likely to have significant and potentially system designrelevant impacts on perception, political support, and implementation. Comparisons of the new system to the old system are likely to rest on experience of a world less affected by climate change, such that concerns about lower reliability, higher costs, and other challenges might be perceived as inherent to zero-carbon systems, versus energy systems facing consequences of climate change and longterm underinvestment. This review assesses and evaluates medium-term challenges associated with the mid-transition in the United States, emphasizing the need for explicit planning for joint and coordinated phase-in and phase-out.

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White knights, or horsemen of the apocalypse? Prospects for Big Oil to align emissions with a 1.5 °C pathway

Cited by 69 publications

References 76 publications

The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments

The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments

Reflecting the energy transition from a European perspective and in the global context—Relevance of solar photovoltaics benchmarking two ambitious scenarios

Designing the mid‐transition: A review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States

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