White Support for Racial Referenda in the Deep South

Abstract

This research examines two referenda in the Deep South, both of which can be categorized as antiblack. Specifically, we analyze a 2001 Mississippi flag referendum (in which the electorate rejected a new flag and retained the old state flag containing a Confederate insignia) and a 2004 referendum in Alabama (in which citizens voted to retain unenforceable constitutional language requiring separate educational facilities for black and white students, and a poll tax on voting). Using state election returns and census data, we employ weighted least squares regression to analyze voting patterns. The results reveal that across both states, white voters displayed significantly greater “antiblack” voting behavior in those areas with larger black populations and more urbanized environments. Our findings pose a direct challenge to both those who insist that the “racial threat” perceived by whites is diminishing and those who hold that urbanization will ultimately be corrosive of racist attitudes and behavior. Esta investigación examina dos referendos en el sur de Estados Unidos, cada uno de ellos puede ser categorizado como anti afroamericano. Específicamente, se analizó el referendo en 2001 a la bandera de Mississippi (en el que el electorado rechazó una nueva bandera y decidieron conservar la bandera anterior que contenía una insignia del ejército confederado) y un referendo en 2004 en Alabama (en el que los ciudadanos votaron para conservar un lenguaje constitucional imposible de aplicar que requería separar las instalaciones educativas para blancos y afroamericanos, y un impuesto al voto).Usando los resultados de las elecciones estatales e información estadística, empleamos un modelo de regresión de cuadrados mínimos comunes para analizar patrones electorales. Los resultados revelan que a través de ambos estados los votantes blancos mostraron un comportamiento electoral “anti afroamericano” significativamente mayor en áreas con una gran población afroamericana y entornos más urbanizados. Nuestros hallazgos plantean un desafío directo a quienes insisten que la “amenaza racial” percibida por la población blanca está disminuyendo, y aquellos que afirman que la urbanización eliminará actitudes y comportamiento racista.

Furling the Flag: Explaining the 2015 Vote to Remove the Confederate Flag in South Carolina

“…This is not to say, however, that white support is not contingent on contextual factors. In clear support for Key's () “racial threat” hypothesis, Orey and others () found that whites are more likely to support the flag when they live in areas with larger black populations.…”

The Racial Context of Convenience Voting Cutbacks

“…Finally, the sufficiently high percentages of voter records from the BOE data files that were successfully matched during the geocoding processes add to our confidence in the analytical samples (Table 1, columns 5 and 9). As stated earlier, because the vast majority of states do not capture data related to an individual's race or ethnicity during the voter registration and ballot casting processes, racial group disparities in voter participation or the type of ballot cast cannot be ascertained from most state registration records alone (King, 1997(King, , 1999Orey et al, 2011;Roch & Rushton, 2008). Rather, to evaluate these questions, voter records must be merged with data from other sources-here, the U.S. Census Bureau-that collect racial information on a superset (voting-age persons) of the target population (voters).…”

“…This article uses King's (1997) "solution" to the problem (King's EI) to estimate EIP usage by race. King's EI is widely used in studies of group voting behavior (Liu, 2001;Orey et al, 2011;Roch & Rushton, 2008;Tolbert & Grummel, 2003;Tolbert & Hero, 2001;Voss, 1996Voss, , 2000Voss & Miller, 2001;Weaver, 2014), and it has gained "favorability" among federal judges in votingrelated cases (Greiner, 2007;Withers, 2001). It is, therefore, considered to be an "established method" for this type of research (Collett, 2005).…”

“…This observation led the judges to opine that such a pattern is likely to continue into the future (State of Florida v. U.S., 2012 [see Per Curium Opinion]). Unlike the Florida example, though, most states, including Ohio, do not collect racial information on individual voters (e.g., King, 1997King, , 1999Orey, Overby, Hatemi, & Liu, 2011;Roch & Rushton, 2008;Weaver, 2014). This means that the majority of U.S. states cannot appeal to known administrative data to describe EIP voting patterns by race in their jurisdictions, for the simple reason that such data do not exist.…”

“…For these reasons, the current article relies instead on King's (1997) method of ecological inference (King's EI) to derive estimates for EIP takeup rates by race. King's EI has been viewed favorably by federal judges in voting rights cases (Greiner, 2007), and it is used widely in similarly motivated social science research (Liu, 2001;Orey et al, 2011;Roch & Rushton, 2008;Tolbert & Grummel, 2003;Tolbert & Hero, 2001;Voss, 1996Voss, , 2000Voss & Miller, 2001). Nonetheless, the method is not without its critics (Anselin & Cho, 2002;Calvo & Escolar, 2003;Cho, 1998;Freedman, Klein, Ostland, & Roberts, 1998;Greiner, 2007), and, consequently, the estimates that it produces are supported by, and discussed within the context of, supplementary decile analyses and geovisualizations (refer to the "Data and Method" section below).…”