Who continued travelling by public transport during COVID-19? Socioeconomic factors explaining travel behaviour in Stockholm 2020 based on smart card data

Abstract

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden, for the spring and autumn of 2020. We suggest two binomial logit models for explaining the change in travel pattern, linking socioeconomic data per area and travel data with the probability to stop travelling. Modelled variables The first model investigates the impact of the socioeconomic factors: age; income; education level; gender; housing type; population density; country of origin; and employment level. The results show that decreases in public transport use are linked to all these factors. The second model groups the investigated areas into five distinct clusters based on the socioeconomic data, showing the impacts for different socioeconomic groups. During the autumn the differences between the groups diminished, and especially Cluster 1 (with the lowest education levels, lowest income and highest share of immigrants) reduced their public transport use to a similar level as the more affluent clusters. Results The results show that socioeconomic status affect the change in behaviour during the pandemic and that exposure to the virus is determined by citizens’ socioeconomic class. Furthermore, the results can guide policy into tailoring public transport supply to where the need is, instead of assuming that e.g. crowding is equally distributed within the public transport system in the event of a pandemic.

Influence of COVID-19 Mobility-Restricting Policies on Individual Travel Behavior in Malaysia

“…We also found that the car owners significantly prioritized pandemic-related factors when determining their travel mode during the pandemic compared to non-car-owners. Previous studies have also discussed similar issues in that car owners tended to use their private car for commuting from home to work during the pandemic, indicating that people placed a higher priority on their health and comfort over the economy [36,80]. Furthermore, when determining a mode of travel during the pandemic, the findings show that married people and essential workers put a higher priority on pandemic-related factors than single and nonessential workers.…”

Travel mode preferences among German commuters over the course of COVID-19 pandemic

“…Most of the previous studies described the early impacts of COVID-19 on travel behavior and preferences, focusing on the period before the summer of 2020 ( Abdullah et al, 2020 ; Dingil and Esztergár-Kiss, 2021 ; Dong et al, 2021 ; Eisenmann et al, 2021 ; Hensher et al, 2021 ; Kolarova et al, 2021 ; Shamshiripour et al, 2020 ; Zhang et al, 2021 ). The first studies considering the evolution of the pandemic after that period, characterized by new waves of infection, but also by an increasing adaptation of the population and by advances in the knowledge, prevention, and treatment of the disease, are now coming in ( Almlöf et al, 2021 ; Rothengatter et al, 2021 ).…”

“…Research of COVID-19 impact is moving fast, but to the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that applies this modelling framework to analyze the uptake of commuting trips in a “new normal” context, in which the infection rates are still high but the mobility restrictions are less severe or, at least, more locally targeted. Additionally, compared to revealed preferences ( Almlöf et al, 2021 ), the stated preference survey design implemented in this study aims for an improved knowledge about the commuters’ expectations and requirements regarding social distancing on board the PuT, supporting user-centric policies in the post-pandemic future.…”

Robustness and disturbances in public transport

“… 5 An interesting investigation regarding pandemic implications for Stockholm, Sweden, is reported on https://people.kth.se/~jenelius/corona_pt/ (see also Almlöf et al. 2021 ) and in general on https://www.transformative-mobility.org/news/the-covid-19-outbreak-and-implications-to-public-transport-some-observations , last access March 18, 2022. …”