Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP

Feenstra, Robert C.; Ma, Hong; Neary, J. Peter; Rao, D. S. Prasada

doi:10.3386/w17729

Cited by 26 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…1960Penn World Tables (1960 and own calculations (1961-2009 or 1960-2009, depending In fact, key methodological choices such as the coverage of price surveys (urban but also rural), the weighting schemes of price indices, the calibration of productivity in services or the valuation of imports and exports, may have a heavy impact on the results (see Deaton and Heston, 2010;Feenstra et al, 2013 and own calculations. They also provide a fully transparent, theoretically grounded and flexible tool for the research community.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, key methodological choices such as the coverage of price surveys (urban but also rural), the weighting schemes of price indices, the calibration of productivity in services or the valuation of imports and exports, may have a heavy impact on the results (see Deaton and Heston, 2010;Feenstra et al, 2013). In fact, key methodological choices such as the coverage of price surveys (urban but also rural), the weighting schemes of price indices, the calibration of productivity in services or the valuation of imports and exports, may have a heavy impact on the results (see Deaton and Heston, 2010;Feenstra et al, 2013).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notes: 1 Based on theInternational Comparison Project (ICP), this dataset has received a number of criticisms, notably following the large downward revision of Chinese PPP GDP in 2008. In fact, key methodological choices such as the coverage of price surveys (urban but also rural), the weighting schemes of price indices, the calibration of productivity in services or the valuation of imports and exports, may have a heavy impact on the results (see Deaton and Heston, 2010;Feenstra et al, 2013). Nevertheless, we rely on this database which is readily available for a large number of countries over our estimation period.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon

2013

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International audienceEconomic analysis is increasingly addressing long-term issues (such as global warming) that require a dynamic baseline for the world economy. In this article, we develop a three-factor (capital, energy, labour) macroeconometric (MaGE - Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy) model, and project growth for 147 countries to 2050. We improve on the literature by the following: (i) accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, (ii) modelling female participation rates consistent with education catch-up, (iii) departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility (by applying a Feldstein-Horioka type relationship between saving and investment rates), and (iv) offering a fully consistent treatment of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. These innovative features have a sizeable impact on projected GDP

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon

2013

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“…Feenstra et al . () provide a more systematic examination of the urban bias in Chinese consumption prices and report results which largely justify the use of a 20 percent downward adjustment used in PWT 7.1.…”

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confidence: 93%

Global Inequality; Levels and Trends, 1993–2005: How Sensitive are These to the Choice of PPPs and Real Income Measures?

Warner¹,

Rao²,

Griffiths³

et al. 2014

Review of Income and Wealth

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Increasing global interaction between economies over the last few decades has led to growing interest on the implications of globalization. Of particular interest has been the distributional impact of globalization and whether this has been equity enhancing. Contributing to this debate, Chotikapanich et al. have previously estimated global and regional inequalities for 1993 and 2000. The current paper presents estimates of global inequality for 2005, making use of purchasing power parity (PPP) data from the 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) round. A critical element in the estimation of regional and global inequality is the data on PPPs and real incomes. Another objective of the paper is to examine the sensitivity of the inequality results to the use of alternative sets of real incomes using different sets of PPP data to convert per capita income data into a common currency unit. The paper also compares levels and trends of global inequality measures based on real per capita income measures from the national accounts and those obtained using per capita expenditure data from household expenditure surveys. The main finding of the paper is that the populist view that globalization has increased inequality does not hold when inequality is measured at the global level. Between 1993 and 2005, inequality has consistently declined as measured both by the Gini coefficient and the Theil index. This decline in global inequality was the result of a decline in inequality between countries. The estimates do suggest that there is an overall upward trend in inequality within countries, lending some support for protestors against globalization. Another finding is that the levels of global inequality are indeed sensitive to the choice of PPPs. However, the downward trend in global inequality is consistently evident across different choices of PPPs and real incomes. We find similar trends in inequality and in the within and between components of inequality when inequality measures are based on national accounts real per capita incomes or on the survey‐based real per capita expenditures.

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“…While the standard view about the systemic implications of the global imbalances is overblown, China's contributions to the global imbalances in the form of large and persistent international payments surpluses since 2000 have caused a major shift in global economic activity (see Figure 1). According to Feenstra et al (2011), based on purchasing power parity estimates, China's share of global output will overtake the output share of the USA and Europe by 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

China's Approach to Rebalancing: A Conceptual and Policy Framework

Deer

Song

2012

China and World Economy

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This article seeks to develop a conceptual and policy framework for understanding China's role in the global economic imbalances. China's contribution to these imbalances via recurrent trade and financial surpluses corresponds with a phase of deepening structural risks to China's economic growth and development. These structural challenges include: the composition of growth resulting from China's dynamic internal transformation, China's trade orientation, the trajectory of resource use and CO2 emissions, welfare problems relating to distribution and international constraints. This article develops a conceptual framework for examining the relationship between the processes of long‐run structural transformation in China, its economic imbalances, and the role of institutional reform in dealing with these structural challenges. As such, economic policy should extend beyond short‐term macro management to pursue an institutional reform agenda to facilitate broader structural change to mitigate constraints to future growth and to improve economic welfare.

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Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP

Cited by 26 publications

References 15 publications

Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon

Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon

Global Inequality; Levels and Trends, 1993–2005: How Sensitive are These to the Choice of PPPs and Real Income Measures?

China's Approach to Rebalancing: A Conceptual and Policy Framework

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