Whole truths vs. half truths – And a search for clarity in long-term water temperature records

Fulweiler, Robinson W.; Oczkowski, Autumn; Miller, Kenneth M.; Oviatt, Candace A.; Pilson, Michael E. Q.

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2015.01.021

Cited by 42 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Nevertheless, our analysis provides a first-order approximation of how increases in estuarine water temperatures over the last several decades may have fueled decomposition rates in such a way that organic matter now contributes less to marsh accretion compared to historical records. The fact that the contribution from organic matter has declined in all our cores compared to historical values supports this hypothesis, as changes in water temperature have likely impacted the entire estuary (Fulweiler et al 2015).…”

Section: Role Of Organic Matter In Contributing To Vertical Accretionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…Accelerated RSLR is not the only change being observed throughout the estuary (Oviatt 2004;Fulweiler et al 2007;Fulweiler and Nixon 2009). One of the most dramatic changes has been a 1.4-1.6°C total increase in mean water temperatures and specifically a 1.6 to 2°C total increase in winter water temperatures since the 1960s (Fulweiler et al 2015), a trend also observed throughout the region (Nixon et al 2004). Moreover, Weston (2013) recently documented a decline in large (watershed areas >1,000 km 2 ) river sediment loads throughout New England.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…We found that organic matter now contributes less to marsh accretion compared to three decades ago; by comparing the percent of accretion attributable to organic matter between current and historical values (Table 3), the fraction of organic matter attributable to accretion has declined by 22 %, from an average of 9.6 % in 1983 to the current average of 7.5 % in Narragansett Bay proper (i.e., excluding our site 5 which is located 14 miles offshore and historical values from Rhode Island salt ponds). We hypothesize that the lower contribution of organic matter to accretion may be a result of significantly warmer water temperatures in the system Fulweiler et al 2015), which may have increased low marsh decomposition rates (White and Trapani 1982;Valiela et al 1985;Charles and Dukes 2009). In order to test this hypothesis, we used the significant (p<0.01) relationship presented by Valiela et al (1985) between mass lost in the low marsh as a function of inundating water temperature (y=0.029x+0.053), where x is water temperature and y represents mass lost.…”

Section: Role Of Organic Matter In Contributing To Vertical Accretionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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The Declining Role of Organic Matter in New England Salt Marshes

Carey

Moran

Kelly

et al. 2015

Estuaries and Coasts

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The Northeast USA is experiencing severe impacts of a changing climate, including increased winter temperatures and accelerated relative sea level rise (RSLR). The sediment-poor, organic-rich nature of many Southern New England salt marshes makes them particularly vulnerable to these changes. In order to assess how marsh accretion has changed over time, we returned to Narragansett Bay, RI where salt marsh vertical accretion rates were documented almost 30 years ago. Using radionuclide tracers ( 210 Pb and 137 Cs), we observe no significant change in overall accretion rates (0.27-0.69 cm year −1 ) compared to historical averages (0.24-0.60 cm year −1 ), but we document a shift in how these marshes maintain elevation. Organic matter now plays a smaller role in contributing to vertical accretion across all study sites, declining by 22 % on average. We attribute this reduction to potentially higher decomposition rates fueled by higher water temperature. Inorganic matter also contributes less to accretion (declining by 44 % on average at marshes located more internal to the estuary), likely due to diminishing sediment supply in this region. With organic and inorganic solids accounting for less of the total accretion, several of the marshes are experiencing symptoms of swelling, with water and porespace contributing more towards accretion compared to historical values. Accretion rates (0.27-0.45 cm year −1 ) at these organic-rich (>40 % sediment organic matter) marshes are predominantly lower than the current (30 years) rate of RSLR (0.41±0.07 cm year −1 ). These results, combined with the increased rate of RSLR and the hardened shorelines inhibiting landward migration, call into question the longterm survivability of these marshes.

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Section: Role Of Organic Matter In Contributing To Vertical Accretionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Role Of Organic Matter In Contributing To Vertical Accretionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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The Declining Role of Organic Matter in New England Salt Marshes

Carey

Moran

Kelly

et al. 2015

Estuaries and Coasts

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“…Significant declines in the number of demersal finfish have been observed along with significant increases in the number of decapods (e.g., crabs and lobsters) [ Oviatt et al ., ; Collie et al ., ; Nixon et al ., ]. Surface water temperature has increased between 1.4°C to 1.6°C over the last five decades and there has been a significant ( p < 0.0001) increase in the number of summer (June–August) days above 23°C indicating a shift in the overall temperature range of this system [ Fulweiler et al ., ]. Decreases in wind and increases in cloud cover have also been observed [ Pilson , ; Borkman and Smayda , ; Nixon et al ., ].…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Land use change has altered the timing and magnitude of sediment loading [ Syvitski et al ., ; Glendell and Brazier , ] and freshwater inflows are rerouted to service agriculture and recreational activities thereby altering estuarine physics, chemistry, and biology. Additionally, human activities on larger regional and global scales have led to increases in surface water temperatures [ Nixon et al ., ; Fulweiler et al ., ], the impacts of which we are just beginning to document [ Fulweiler et al ., ; Pinkney et al ., ].…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A workflow for reproducing mean benthic gas fluxes

Fulweiler

Emery

Maguire

2016

Earth and Space Science

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Long-term data sets provide unique opportunities to examine temporal variability of key ecosystem processes. The need for such data sets is becoming increasingly important as we try to quantify the impact of human activities across various scales and in some cases, as we try to determine the success of management interventions. Unfortunately, long-term benthic flux data sets for coastal ecosystems are rare and curating them is a challenge. If we wish to make our data available to others now and into the future, however, then we need to provide mechanisms that allow others to understand our methods, access the data, reproduce the results, and see updates as they become available. Here we use techniques, learned through the EarthCube Ontosoft Geoscience Paper of the Future project, to develop best practices to allow us to share a long-term data set of directly measured net sediment N 2 fluxes and sediment oxygen demand at two sites in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island (USA). This technical report describes the process we used, the challenges we faced, and the steps we will take in the future to ensure transparency and reproducibility. By developing these data and software sharing tools we hope to help disseminate well-curated data with provenance as well as products from these data, so that the community can better assess how this temperate estuary has changed over time. We also hope to provide a data sharing model for others to follow so that long-term estuarine data are more easily shared and not lost over time.

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Implications of Future Northwest Atlantic Bottom Temperatures on the American Lobster (Homarus americanus) Fishery

2017

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Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic have warmed dramatically over the last several decades, while benthic temperatures have increased at a slower pace. Here we analyze a subset of the CMIP5 global Earth system model ensemble using a statistical downscaling approach to determine potential future changes in benthic temperatures on the northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope (<500 m). We put future changes in the context of possible impacts of ocean warming on the high‐value, wild‐caught American Lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. Future bottom temperatures of the northwest Atlantic under a business‐as‐usual (RCP8.5) and a climate‐policy (RCP4.5) scenario are projected to increase by 0–1.5°C and 1.2–2.4°C by 2050 and 0–1.9°C and 2.3–4.3°C by the end of the century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. H. americanus experiences thermal stress at temperatures above 20°C, and projected increases in temperature is likely to result in changes in the distribution of optimal thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators. Inshore regions of southern New England, where H. americanus biomass and catch have been declining historically, will likely become inhospitable under either future scenario, while thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators will expand offshore and in the Gulf of Maine. These changes imply that members of the fishery based in southern New England may need to recapitalize to larger vessels to prepare for potential changes brought on by future climate warming. Results from the downscaling presented here can be useful in preparing for potential changes to other fisheries or in future climate vulnerability analyses.

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Whole truths vs. half truths – And a search for clarity in long-term water temperature records

Cited by 42 publications

References 19 publications

The Declining Role of Organic Matter in New England Salt Marshes

The Declining Role of Organic Matter in New England Salt Marshes

A workflow for reproducing mean benthic gas fluxes

Implications of Future Northwest Atlantic Bottom Temperatures on the American Lobster (Homarus americanus) Fishery

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