Why a collapse of global civilization will be avoided: a comment on Ehrlich & Ehrlich

Abstract

Ehrlich FRS & Ehrlich [1] claim that over-population, over-consumption and the future climate mean that 'preventing a global collapse of civilization is perhaps the foremost challenge confronting humanity'. What is missing from the wellreferenced perspective of the potential downsides for the future of humanity is any balancing assessment of the progress being made on these three challenges (and the many others they cite by way of detail) that suggests that the problems are being dealt with in a way that will not require a major disruption to the human condition or society. Earlier dire predictions have been made in the same mode by Malthus FRS [2] on food security, Jevons FRS [3] on coal exhaustion, King FRS & Murray [4] on peak oil, and by many others. They have all been overcome by the exercise of human ingenuity just as the doom was being prophesied with the deployment of steam engines to greatly improve agricultural efficiency, and the discoveries of oil and of fracking oil and gas, respectively, for the three examples given. It is incumbent on those who would continue to predict gloom to learn from history and make a comprehensive review of human progress before coming to their conclusions. The problems as perceived today by Ehrlich FRS and Ehrlich will be similarly seen off by work in progress by scientists and engineers. My comment is intended to summarize and reference the potential upsides being produced by today's human ingenuity, and I leave the reader to weigh the balance for the future, taking into account the lessons of recent history.The population explosion (and its Malthusian societal disruptions) that Ehrlich FRS predicted for the 1990s has not come about [5,6], and the concerns in this present Ehrlich paper are not tempered by the mounting evidence of the demographic transition that occurs when the majority of people live in cities and have access to education. In Japan, Europe and North America the population, excluding immigration, is in decline. Some studies indicate that a peak of 9 billion people in 2050 will be followed by a decline to a population of approximately 6 billion in 2100-less than that in 2000 [7] and bringing new problems of unwanted infrastructure assets! The UN is revising its future population estimates downward [8]. If we look at the waste in the contemporary food chain, at the point of growth, in transit to the market and into the homes of consumers, and compound that loss by the amount of food thrown out rather than consumed, we generate the quantity of food to feed the 9 billion today with the systems in place if we were less wasteful and could distribute it [9].Animal protein is now being generated in the laboratory and not on the farm [10]. Where is the discussion of the impact of mega-cities being self-sufficient in animal protein from factories within their city boundaries 40 years from now? This is the time scale on which synthetic fibre comprehensively displaced wool from most of its markets. Indeed, rather than speak of peak oil, we can speak of peak farmland-...

Marine biology on a violated planet: from science to conscience

“…the risks of ozone depletion through the phasing out of industrial chlorofluorocarbons; Solomon et al 2016). The warnings of doomsayers who portended approaching misfortunes prompted rebuttals by cornucopians (or exemptionalists; Cairns 1999) inclined to trust human wit, celebrate technological progress and believe in the endless availability of resources (Aligica 2009, Kelly 2013. Meanwhile, evidence of unsustainable human impact on the planet had been piling up, and the warnings of upcoming disaster were becoming ever more credible and worrying (Vitousek et al 1997, Ripple et al 2017).…”

Can ideas be dangerous?

“…The debate about the relevance of Malthus' ideas continues, as shown recently in the debate between members of the Royal Society (of London)-see Ehrlich and Ehrlich (2013a, b) and Kelly (2013); the two sides are unlikely ever to agree.…”

Lessons from technology development for energy and sustainability

“…Furthermore farmers in India and Africa use their phones to decide when to go to market to get the best price for all they bring-they need no longer to overgrow to compensate for coming too soon or too late to market. 9 The notion of many integrated sensor networks enabling more effi cient living in future cities is already being introduced, and is set to become pervasive in the next 20-30 years. Autonomous vehicles, real-time health monitoring and diagnosis, and energy load balancing of demand at the urban scale are just three of many benefits that are anticipated.…”

“…Someday a neo-Malthusian may be proved right, but not yet, and maybe never, especially if some galactic event intervenes. 9 I have stressed above the role of individuals in the Royal Society taking a leading role in the debates: it continues to this day with individuals aligned on both sides. 10 The one change from history is that a bylaw of the Society that stood for most of its history has been overturned in recent decades.…”