Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: Commentary on Fergnani &amp; Chermack, 2021

Hodgkinson, Gerard P.

doi:10.1002/ffo2.79

Cited by 2 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…However, doing so at the expense of explicating more completely the generative mechanisms underpinning those accomplishments was surely a lost opportunity to advance both the art and science of enabling strategic conversations and, indeed, enhance the academic standing of the futures and foresight field (cf. Fergnani & Chermack, 2021a, 2021b; Hodgkinson, 2021).…”

Section: The Neglect Of Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Hodgkinson

2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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Section: The Neglect Of Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Hodgkinson

2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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“…The audience did not quite throw rotten tomatoes, but it appeared akin to that. Hodgkinson (2021) suggests that appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is a necessary but insufficient part of arguing for the adoption of more scientific methods. On the one hand, developing scenario planning and futures and foresight science as scientific fields of research requires more than just "anecdotal evidence" from practitioners.…”

Section: Critical Realism As a Foundation For Experimental Research O...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nor, relatedly, is it wise to place scientific knowledge on a pedestal above that of other types of knowledge (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993; Ravetz, 2022), especially in a practice‐led domain such as futures and foresight science. Hodgkinson (2021) relays the chastening experience of trying to persuade an audience of prominent practitioners to adopt scientific methods in relation to futures and foresight tools. The audience did not quite throw rotten tomatoes, but it appeared akin to that.…”

Section: Critical Realism As a Foundation For Experimental Research O...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Providing futures and foresight science with a stronger scientific basis has been the topic of several recent papers, commentaries and responses in this journal (Cairns, 2021; Fergnani & Chermack, 2021a, 2021b; Hodgkinson, 2021; Kishita et al, 2021; Mandel, 2021; Minkkinen, 2021; Münch & von der Gracht, 2021; Phadnis, 2021; Rowland & Spaniol, 2021a, 2021b; Salo, 2021; Schoemaker, 2021). The increased focus on this subject in this field is welcome.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Critical realism recognizes the openness, complexity and emergence that lead to uncertainty. Partly for that reason, it has been suggested as an appropriate foundation for research on scenario planning, as‐well‐as for futures and foresight science more broadly (Frith & Tapinos, 2020; Hodgkinson, 2021; Patomäki, 2006). Yet, exactly because critical realism recognizes openness, complexity and emergence, the experimental method may jar with it, as it seeks closure by controlling for all extraneous factors in order to isolate specific causal effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning

Derbyshire

Dhami

Belton

et al. 2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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An already pressing need to evidence the effectiveness of futures and foresight tools has been further amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, which highlighted more mainstream tools' difficulty with uncertainty. In light of this, the recent discussion in this journal on providing futures and foresight science with a stronger scientific basis is welcome. In this discussion critical realism has been proffered as a useful philosophical foundation and experiments a useful method for improving this field's scientific basis. Yet, experiments seek to isolate specific causal effects through closure (i.e., by controlling for all extraneous factors) and this may cause it to jar with critical realism's emphasis on uncertainty and openness. We therefore extend the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science by doing three things. First, we elaborate on critical realism and why the experimental method may jar with it. Second, we explain why the distinction between a conceptual and a direct replication can help overcome this jarring, meaning experiments can still be a valuable research tool for a futures and foresight science underpinned by critical realism. Third, we consider the appropriate unit of analysis for experiments on futures and foresight tools. In so doing, we situate the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science within the much longer running one on improving the scientific basis of business, management and strategy research more broadly. We use the case of scenario planning to illustrate our argument in relation to futures and foresight science.

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Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: Commentary on Fergnani & Chermack, 2021

Cited by 2 publications

References 38 publications

The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning

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