Why Crime Rates Are Falling throughout the Western World

Tonry, Michael

doi:10.1086/678181

Cited by 135 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The distribution of these shares is stable from 2004 onwards, reflecting the stable composition of the group of offenders, even though our decomposition shows that fewer youth initiate a criminal career. Thus, the young people driving the decline at the extensive margin are drawn from the entire distribution of young people (with all levels of crime proneness), a finding that validates Tonry's (2014) rejection of the gateway hypotheses. Figure 4 shows results from the cohort analyses, and plots the extensive (panel a) and intensive (panel b) margins of charges by age for select birth cohorts.…”

Section: Cohort Analysessupporting

confidence: 58%

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A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

Andersen¹,

Anker²,

Andersen³

2016

DemRes

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Section: Cohort Analysessupporting

confidence: 58%

“…In fact, the rates of some types of crime, such as homicide, have shown parallel trends since the late Middle Ages (Tonry 2014), at least in English-speaking countries. The parallel trends across developed democracies may be the key to answering the question of declining youth crime.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

Andersen¹,

Anker²,

Andersen³

2016

DemRes

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“…The second was that most other high income countries experienced a crime decline. Hence the collection of work edited by van Dijk et al (2012) refers to an international crime drop (see also Tseloni et al 2010;Knepper 2012;Tonry 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Debuts and legacies: the crime drop and the role of adolescence-limited and persistent offending

2015

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Age-specific arrest rates for the United States at the crime peak of the late 1980s and early 90s are compared to those for 2010. Three key features are explored; (1) The disproportionate decline in adolescent offending; (2) The decline in this age-effect up to age 40; (3) Offenders aged in their 40s who in 2010 offended at higher rates than offenders of that age at crime's peak. The first two are interpreted as consistent with the debut crime hypothesis: crime fell because reduced crime opportunities made adolescent crime, and hence criminal career onset and continuance, more difficult. We interpret the third as a legacy of increased onset and habitual criminality fostered by exploitation of the plentiful crime opportunities of the 1970s and 80s. Implications for theory and practice are identified.

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“…This led to the choice as explanatory variables which were specific to that country, such as prison use, police strength and abortion legislation. These variables trended differently in other countries with similar crime drops (Tonry 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

The global crime drop and changes in the distribution of victimisation

Pease

Ignatans

2016

Crime Sci

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Over three decades crime counts in England and Wales, as throughout the Western world, have fallen. Less attention has been paid to the distribution of crime across households, though this is crucial in determining optimal distribution of limited policing resources in pursuing the aim of distributive justice. The writers have previously demonstrated that in England and Wales the distribution of crime victimisation has remained pretty much unchanged over the period of the crime drop. The present paper seeks to extend the study of changes in the distribution of victimisation over time using data from 25 countries contributing data to the International Crime Victimisation Survey (ICVS) sweeps (1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000). While fragmentary, the data mirror the trends discerned in England and Wales. The trends are not an artefact of the inclusion of particular countries in particular sweeps. The demographic, economical, geographical and social household characteristics associated with victimisation are consistent across time. The suggested policy implication is the need for greater emphasis on preventing multiple victimisation.

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Why Crime Rates Are Falling throughout the Western World

Cited by 135 publications

References 53 publications

A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

A formal decomposition of declining youth crime in Denmark

Debuts and legacies: the crime drop and the role of adolescence-limited and persistent offending

The global crime drop and changes in the distribution of victimisation

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