Why Cross-Country Convergence of Income is Unsustainable: Evidence from Inclusive Wealth in 140 Countries

Abstract

Recent economic convergence studies show that cross-country income inequalities have declined since the 1990s. However, this study finds that this episode of income convergence is unsustainable in the long run because countries' capacity to earn income diverges. Specifically, the paper analyses the convergence of per-capita Inclusive Wealth, which comprises all capital assets that contribute to the production of goods and services and the well-being of its society. Utilizing a diverse array of techniques to estimate convergence in a sample of 140 countries between 1990 and 2010, the paper demonstrates the simultaneity of unconditional convergence of GDP and unconditional divergence of Inclusive Wealth. Natural-resource-rich countries that lack human capital, in particular, appear unable to match the global per capita Inclusive Wealth growth rate. A trend emerges towards a bimodal Inclusive Wealth distribution with a substantial low-wealth peak. Thus, although swift income convergence appears promising for developing nations, I caution against optimism. When considering a more appropriate measure of future well-being, such as Inclusive Wealth, the economic outlook for many countries is bleaker than recent studies suggest.