Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems

Abstract

Climate change is perhaps the biggest challenge of our times. In order to cope with it, we have to organise action collectively. The most important way to cooperate globally is through United Nations negotiations, known as ‘conferences of the parties’. However, progress has been very slow, and disillusionment with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process has set in. From a scientific point of view, several obstacles surfacing in these negotiations have been well researched. Institutional analysis may provide suggestions or even solutions to some of these problems. Hence, we think that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations could profit from scientific support. We provide scientific background for three prominent problems: how to reconcile different interests in a global public goods situation; how to ameliorate the consensus decision-making process; and how to design institutions to implement resolutions. Enhancing communication, trust and fairness, and enforcing sanctions, are suggested as key elements for that. Finally, we point to similar processes that have been brought to a successful end.

Decision Change: The First Step to System Change

“…The UN, the European Union, and many other international institutions are judged to be 'incapable of rising to the challenges' and even the concept of the nation-state is found to be in 'deep crisis' [63]. Causes of insufficient international governance are the short-term economic and political interests of the nations, and a lack of hard enforcement mechanisms, leading to free-riding, that is, not complying with an agreement while others do [64]. Also, international governance suffers from fragmentation, which is defined as the presence of 'multiple and often overlapping institutions and actor constellations active in the same area, and the resulting normative conflicts'.…”

Making the UNFCCC fit for purpose: A research agenda on vested interests and green spiralling

“…While the UNFCCC is just one of several institutions in the climate governance landscape, many argue that the UNFCCC needs reforms to raise ambition and drive implementation (Rockström et al., 2023). These calls tend to aim at increasing procedural efficiency, ensuring greater transparency and accountability of pledges and initiatives, streamlining agendas, and managing the size of the UNFCCC's Annual Conference of the Parties (COP) (Frey & Burgess, 2022; Rajamani et al., 2023). Others, such as Al Gore (see e.g., Borenstein & Keaten, 2023), argue that the consensus principle for decision‐making is holding progress back and that this should be the target for reform (also see e.g., Kemp, 2016).…”

The Paris Agreement has the potential to facilitate ambitious climate action: a reply to ‘Why do climate change negotiations stall? Scientific evidence and solutions for some structural problems’ by Ulrich J. Frey and Jazmin Burgess

“…This approach to cooperation should be seen not only as an alternative to the UNFCCC process, but also as a potential complement, and one that is fully compatible with the design of the Paris Agreement (see Falkner et al, 2022). Facilitating club formation, whether between groups of countries on overall climate policy, as a result of sectoral cooperation (for example, within aviation or shipping) or based on specific technologies (such as hydrogen or carbon capture and storage), can help overcome or circumvent the problems of 'opposing interests and political stances' that Frey and Burgess (2022: 2) identify (and offer a more realistic path forward than overturning the consensus decision-making rule). At the global level, these problems can indeed become insurmountable obstacles, but that is why it may be useful to complement what can be achieved at the global level with institutions that have configurations of countries whose interests align better.…”