Why do regions differ in vulnerability to СOVID-19? Spatial nonlinear modeling of social and economic patterns

Abstract

Certain groups of determinants (economic, environmental, social, healthcare) with the highest vulnerability identify the reasons for regional differentiation in morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. This defines the necessity to find appropriate combinations of factors characterizing the vulnerability of a region. The methodology and tools to explain the regional specifics of population vulnerability to COVID-19 are investigated through a systematic consideration of many public health factors, environmental, social and economic specific nature of regions. The aim of the article is to study the reasons for regional differentiation of population vulnerability (morbidity and mortality rates) from COVID-19. The authors investigate a nonlinear spatial model in which the stepwise algorithm of individual factor variables is added/removed from the model specifications step by step by the Aitken method depending on their correlation with morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in the region. The Farrar-Glober method is used to eliminate the multicollinearity of factors, the Spearman test is used to detect the heteroskedastic effect, and the Darbin-Watson test is used to check the presence of autocorrelation between the residues. As a result, the specification of the model with the highest adequacy in terms of p-value and tstatistics is formed. Relevant socioecological-economic vulnerability indices of regions to mortality and morbidity from COVID-19 are identified. The obtained results allow making adjustments in the state and regional programs concerning the mobilization of economic and healthcare systems.

Ecological and economic aspects of sustainable development of Ukrainian regions

“…The need for sustainable development of Ukrainian regions is due to the global threat of environmental degradation, the unstable situation in the world economy, low socio-economic indicators of the country and weak innovation activity. The basic aspects of sustainable development policy, goal setting and interaction between them, as well as the experience of developed countries are presented in studies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7].…”

Covid-19 Pandemic and Independent Convenience Stores in the United Kingdom

“…There are scholars suggesting that the consequences of the pandemic will cause a crisis in the supply chains and demand, and will eventually lead to the decline in productivity and employment (Fornaro & Wolf, 2020). Considering the existing inequality in income distribution even in the most developed countries before the pandemic situation (Mishchuk et al, 2018), recent sudden stops in economic activity and sectoral changes in employment can lead to further negative consequences. Interest rates have dropped below zero, and central banks can by no means react effectively (Nicola et al, 2020).…”

“…In immature markets with high share of mutual funds, financial risks,however, grew unexpectedly, causing essential shifts in activity (Nicolescu et al, 2020). Regional differences in the pandemic consequences reflect the distribution of enterprises and labour force involved in the specific activity (Kuzmenko et al, 2020), including the fields strongly influenced by the pandemic crisis (Cepel et al, 2020;Vo, 2020). This list is by no means complete.…”

Improving the Financial Monitoring System: Automation of the Bank's Customer Verification Process

“…Процеси та моделі автоматизації різних процесів у своїх трактатах описують учені Ф. Фернандес, Р. Буено, П. Кавальканті [3. ], які досліджують використання автоматизації через генерування стохастичних процесів за допомогою нейронних мереж; О. Кузьменко, Т. Васильєва, С. Войтович, О. Чигрин та В. Снєшка [6] зосереджують увагу на автоматизації процесу просторового нелінійного моделювання соціальних та економічних закономірностей; Т. Васильєва, С. Лєонов, І. Адамічкова, К. Багмет [12] застосовують автоматизацію під час дослідження інституційної якості соціального сектору.…”