Why Do School District Budget Referenda Fail?

Abstract

Abstract[Excerpt] Public elementary and secondary education is financed in many states at least partially at the local level and school district budgets in many states are determined by voter referenda. To date, however, there have been no studies that sought to explain why the proportion of school district budget proposals in a state that are approved by voters in referenda varies over time. Similarly no research has used panel data on school districts to test whether budget referenda failures are concentrated in a small number of school districts within a state and whether the failure of a budget referendum in a school district in one year influences the likelihood that voters in the district subsequently defeat a budget referendum in the next year.

The Relationship Between Open Enrollment and School Bond Voting

“…Specifically, individuals who actively choose to send their children outside of their local district may be even further disinclined to provide support to the local system. This logic follows findings with regard to communities with large private school enrollments and their support for local public schools (Ehrenberg et al, 2004). At the same time, leaders of districts that face large numbers of student exit (or threat of exit) may seek to make capital improvements to not only attract nonresidents but also retain resident students (Arsen & Davis, 2006).…”

“…Research on school bond passage has focused on several key variables, including resident population characteristics (e.g., age, income status, and race/ethnicity), student characteristics (e.g., race/ethnicity), district characteristics (e.g., long-term indebtedness, employee costs), and bond characteristics (e.g., amount, number of times proposed) (Bowers & Lee, 2013; Bowers, Metzger, & Militello, 2010; Ehrenberg, Ehrenberg, Smith, & Zhang, 2004; Glass, 2008; Ingle et al, 2013; Ladd & Murray, 2001; Sielke, 1998; Zimmer et al, 2011; Zimmer & Jones, 2005). Recent articles by Bowers and Lee (2013) and Ingle et al (2013) provide extensive reviews of the extant research on predictors of school bond passage.…”

“…In another study, Ehrenberg and colleagues (2004) utilized panel data from 380 school districts in New York, which included data from 1985-1986 to 1996-1997, to identify predictors of passage of local school budgets (admittedly different from school bond issues). Although a limited measure of school choice, the researchers reported that the rate of private school attendance within a district was negatively associated with voter approval of local school budgets, even after controlling for other resident characteristics such as race, income, and education.…”

“…Although the study by Ehrenberg and colleagues (2004) has important implications for school choice and school financing, it does not adequately account for the realities of open enrollment, where potentially thousands of students enter or exit the district. More specifically, individuals who send their children to private schools likely spend a significant amount of money on tuition, thus reducing their willingness or ability to pay higher taxes.…”

Local response to fiscal incentives in heterogeneous communities

“…The median county turnout for statewide elections in 1999-a year without presidential, gubernatorial, or congressional campaigns-was about 37%. Further analysis of referenda can be found in Ehrenberg et al (2004). property, V j is the total value of district property, B j is the school budget, and Aid j is outside aid.…”