Why nuclear weapon ban treaty is unlikely to fulfil its promise

Onderčo, Michal

doi:10.1080/23340460.2017.1409082

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These difficulties have been broadly recognized. Some scholars are positive about the potential future normative developments (Considine, 2019;Egeland, 2018;Ritchie, 2019), others see risks associated with looking at the nuclear weapon ban and disarmament from an arms control perspective (Onderco, 2017;Müller, 2020).…”

Section: Emerging Technologies Could Create New Opportunities For Disarmamentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?

Onderčo

Zutt

2021

Contemporary Security Policy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

What is the impact of emerging technologies on nuclear security and disarmament? Current rapid technological advances are taking place against the backdrop of increased investments in modernizing nuclear arsenals, rising tensions among great powers, and increased pressure on nuclear arms control agreements. Yet, the anticipated net effect of these emerging technologies on the nuclear landscape remains ambiguous. Through a survey with 85 experts and a series of elite interviews with 14 decision-makers, this article contends that while emerging technologies destabilize nuclear deterrence by increasing nuclear risk, they can also create fresh opportunities for nuclear disarmament. Given that new technologies are changing the nature of nuclear threats, this article also argues that we need to change the way we think about arms control if we want to respond effectively to the threats posed by emerging technologies.

show abstract

Section: Emerging Technologies Could Create New Opportunities For Disarmamentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?

Onderčo

Zutt

2021

Contemporary Security Policy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is at this level that we see the cognitive dissonance for nuclear client states who on the one hand identify as NPT non-nuclear weapon states committed to nuclear disarmament -the core aim of the TPNW -and on the other as supporters of nuclear deterrence and nuclear weapons. Groups and group identification matter in norm theory because evidence shows that compliance with norms relies on the extent to which others in a state's in-group also comply (Onderco 2017). International/group recognition as both a "responsible" NPT non-nuclear weapon state and a nuclear client state pulls these states in different directions.…”

Section: Universalisation and Authoritymentioning

confidence: 99%

Universalising the TPNW: Challenges and Opportunities

Ritchie

Kmentt²

2021

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is a landmark agreement in the history of the nuclear disarmament movement. It was negotiated against the wishes of the nucleararmed states and many of their supporters and this context defines the challenges and opportunities for its universalisation. We argue that universalisation should be understood as a strategy for maximising the authority of the treaty and its core norms and principles across four categories of state: disarmament advocacy states, a nonnuclear-armed state majority, nuclear client states, and nucleararmed states. We show how these norms and principles are extensions of what already exists, particularly for non-nuclear armed states, but that making these connections will require targeted and sustained political work. We argue that states parties to the TPNW working with civil society will need to engage non-nuclear armed states with a range of normative arguments for the treaty and against the narratives of its critics. This can be done through a range of outreach activities based on other treaty universalisation campaigns, and we set these out in detail. Engaging nuclear client states and nuclear-armed states will be more difficult and require a different approach based on carving open a discursive space in which the TPNW's humanitarian, ethics, and risk rationales must be confronted. Political opposition will be formidable, but the purpose of the TPNW is to influence the nuclear weapons policies of nuclear-armed states, and increasing the authority of the treaty's norms and principles through universalisation strategies will be essential to this.

show abstract

“…Ban critics have also not presented convincing arguments for the allegation that the TPNW is a showstopper for nuclear disarmament negotiations; negotiations had stalled years before the ban was negotiated. 24…”

Section: Harald Müller and Carmen Wunderlichmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Disarmament without the Nuclear-Weapon States: The Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty

Müller¹,

Wunderlich²

2020

Daedalus

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (tpnw) represents a daring act of self-empowerment: nuclear have-nots produced an international disarmament treaty without the involvement of the nuclear-weapon states or their allies. In this essay, we assess how the new treaty relates to the existing nuclear order and its four central norms: constraints on use, political restraint, non-proliferation, and disarmament. We discuss the tpnw's origin in and impact on this contested order. At the heart of contestation are two security concepts: deterrence versus the immediate ban of nuclear arms, which result in fundamentally different ideas on how to pursue the road to “global zero.” Whether or not the tpnw and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons are compatible depends on how the opponents handle their controversies. The key is to overcome the emotionalized polarization and rediscover a common basis in order to prevent damage to the existing nuclear order and bring forward nuclear disarmament in practice.

show abstract

Why nuclear weapon ban treaty is unlikely to fulfil its promise

Cited by 13 publications

References 33 publications

Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?

Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us?

Universalising the TPNW: Challenges and Opportunities

Nuclear Disarmament without the Nuclear-Weapon States: The Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About