Why we iterate: scientific modeling in theory and practice

Homer, Jack

doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199621)12:1<1::aid-sdr93>3.0.co;2-p

Cited by 125 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…This is consistent with the research and documented practice on SD (Barton and Haslett 2007;Homer 1996;Homer et al 2004;Homer and Hirsch 2006;Huz et al 1997). …”

Section: Guess Looking At the Whole Process And The Rationale Behisupporting

confidence: 90%

Aiming for Utility in ‘Systems-based Evaluation’: A Research-based Framework for Practitioners

Grove

2015

IDS Bulletin

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The publication of this IDS Bulletin is evidence that there is a growing philosophy, debate and a quest for examples showing that the application of systems thinking and related approaches could provide improved processes, tools and insights for evaluations and their managers and clients. However, the utility of SBE approaches has not been rigorously studied through case examples for the purpose of providing practical recommendations. SBE is the application of specific methods that are influenced by systems concepts and methodologies to the task of evaluation. This article proposes a set of recommendations for practice for evaluators and managers aiming to employ techniques derived from, or influenced by, a systems perspective.SDM was used and process researched from 2006 to 2008 as a case to investigate its utility as an SBE approach. An SD model was developed to ex ante evaluate the potential requirements and implications on the health systems of the ambitious ART scale-up strategy in Lusaka, Zambia that was being developed and implemented during that period. SD was chosen, with input from the Ministry of Health, as it had been used previously for public health and disease control programme planning and evaluation and provided an accessible literature and a cadre of professional consulting resources (Homer and St Clair 1991;Homer et al. 2004;Homer and Hirsch 2006;Homer et al. 2010;Ritchie-Dunham and Mendez-Galvan 1999;Sterman 2006;Tebbens et al. 2005;Thompson and Tebbens 2010).This article lays out the research stance, process and description of the case. Key features of the SD model and process are presented and described. Exemplary quotations from the research conversations before and after the SD model development among stakeholders are shared. An operational definition of SBE is proposed as well as a framework for utility as emerged from the research. Finally, implications of the research are discussed and conclusions for broader practice of SBE are proposed.This article is based on a dissertation project cited herein and available at http://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:160050. 58Aiming for Utility in 'Systems-based Evaluation': A Research-based Framework for Practitioners John T. GroveAbstract System dynamics modelling (SDM) was used and process researched as a case to investigate its utility as a systems-based evaluation (SBE) approach. A system dynamics (SD) model 1 was developed to evaluate the potential requirements and implications on the health systems of the ambitious antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up strategy in Lusaka, Zambia. Research on SDM for strategic evaluation provided insights and principles for future application of SBE. The SD diagrams readily inspired new insights while practical constraints limited use of the model for action planning. Research suggests that utility of SBE begins with engaging stakeholders to share and align their views on a representation of the system and progresses to their reinterpretations of the system that they inhabit, ultimately moving towards trans...

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“…This is consistent with the research and documented practice on SD (Barton and Haslett 2007;Homer 1996;Homer et al 2004;Homer and Hirsch 2006;Huz et al 1997). …”

Section: Guess Looking At the Whole Process And The Rationale Behisupporting

confidence: 90%

Aiming for Utility in ‘Systems-based Evaluation’: A Research-based Framework for Practitioners

Grove

2015

IDS Bulletin

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“…However, it is important not to turn this methodological strength into an application weakness by inappropriate neglect of data. Homer (1996Homer ( , 1997 rightly emphasises how structure and policy conclusions can depend on adequate use of data.…”

Section: Research Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of a care innovation: telecare

Bayer

Barlow

Curry

2007

System Dynamics Review

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The provision of health and social care for an increasing elderly population is a challenge facing many societies. Telecare, the delivery of health and social care to individuals within the home or wider community, with the support of information and communication technologies, has been advocated as an approach to reduce the rise in the number of elderly people in institutional care and to contain costs. A dynamic model is required to understand the systemic impact of telecare implementation over time. The paper cautions against overoptimistic expectations about the impact of telecare in the short term and emphasises that the benefits for healthcare systems may take a considerable time to be realised.

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“…As well as producing better-posed theories (Bell and Senge, 1980;Homer, 1996), simulation is what must be employed if one wishes rigorously to deduce behaviour. We simulate because mental inference can fail us (Forrester, 1970;Wagenaar and Sagario, 1975;Sterman and Booth-Sweeney, 2002;Booth-Sweeney and Sterman, 2007).…”

Section: Mapping Simulation and Reinforcing Loopsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Steering without Circe: attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

Lane

Husemann²

2008

System Dynamics Review

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Relating system dynamics to the broad systems movement, the key notion is that reinforcing loops deserve no less attention than balancing loops. Three specific propositions follow. First, since reinforcing loops arise in surprising places, investigations of complex systems must consider their possible existence and potential impact. Second, because the strength of reinforcing loops can be misinferred-we include an example from the field of servomechanisms-computer simulation can be essential. Be it project management, corporate growth or inventory oscillation, simulation helps to assess consequences of reinforcing loops and options for interventions. Third, in social systems the consequences of reinforcing loops are not inevitable. Examples concerning "globalization" illustrate how difficult it might be to challenge such assumptions. However, system dynamics and ideas from contemporary social theory help to show that even the most complex social systems are, in principle, subject to human influence. In conclusion, by employing these ideas, by attending to reinforcing as well as balancing loops, system dynamics work can improve the understanding of social systems and illuminate our choices when attempting to steer them. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Syst. Dyn. Rev. 24, 37-61, (2008) We are very honoured and happy to receive the Jay Wright Forrester Award. We are grateful to the members of the award committee, and to Peter Milling for his generous introduction. We are also in debt to many other people who have helped us and we would like to thank at least some of them here.We should like to mention our teachers at the universities of Bristol, Bielefeld and Oxford. We should also like to thank colleagues at LSE and in the fields of problem structuring methods and system science. The very first contact either of us ever had with system dynamics was when David sat in a room by himself for a week with a Mac 512 k, a copy of STELLA and the manual. It was Barry Richmond's fine work that set him off on a new course. He was also lucky enough early on to meet people who were great examples and who encouraged his growing interest in system dynamics. John Sterman, together with David Kreutzer, ran the very first system dynamics course that David ever went to. John's enthusiasm was infectious then and he has been immensely supportive ever since. One of the first people David got to work with on actual projects was John Morecroft and from that experience he saw directly how system dynamics could be used to improve organizations. Some of the earliest advice about work on problem structuring methods came from George Richardson,

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Why we iterate: scientific modeling in theory and practice

Cited by 125 publications

References 6 publications

Aiming for Utility in ‘Systems-based Evaluation’: A Research-based Framework for Practitioners

Aiming for Utility in ‘Systems-based Evaluation’: A Research-based Framework for Practitioners

Assessing the impact of a care innovation: telecare

Steering without Circe: attending to reinforcing loops in social systems

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