Wildfire and climate change amplify knowledge gaps linking mountain source-water systems and agricultural water supply in the western United States

Barnard, David M.; Green, Timothy R.; Mankin, Kyle R.; DeJonge, Kendall C.; Rhoades, Charles C.; Kampf, Stephanie K.; Giovando, Jeremy J; Wilkins, Michael S.; Mahood, Adam L.; Sears, Megan G.; Comas, Louise H.; Gleason, Sean M.; Zhang, Huihui; Fassnacht, S. R.; Harmel, R. Daren; Altenhofen, Jon

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108377

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 65 publications

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“…Forests impact the magnitude and timing of streamflow generation, yet there is a substantial gap in relating forest processes to downstream water supplies, particularly in irrigated areas (Barnard et al, 2023). In seasonally snow-covered areas, forest structure, such as stem density and canopy cover, affects the amount of precipitation that is intercepted and sublimated (Montesi et al, 2004;Sexstone et al, 2018) and the energy balance of the surrounding snowpack Lawler & Link, 2011;Lundquist et al, 2013;Musselman et al, 2012).…”

Section: Underrepresentation Of Forest Processes In Seasonal Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alignment between water inputs and vegetation green‐up reduces next year's runoff efficiency

Newcomb,

Van Kirk,

Godsey

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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In the western United States, water supplies largely originate as snowmelt from forested land. Forests impact the water balance of these headwater streams, yet most predictive runoff models do not explicitly account for changing snow‐vegetation dynamics. Here, we present a case study showing how warmer temperatures and changing forests in the Henrys Fork of the Snake River, a seasonally snow‐covered headwater basin in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, have altered the relationship between April 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) and summer streamflow. Since the onset and recovery of severe drought in the early 2000s, predictive models based on pre‐drought relationships over‐predict summer runoff in all three headwater tributaries of the Henrys Fork, despite minimal changes in precipitation or snow accumulation. Compared with the pre‐drought period, late springs and summers (May–September) are warmer and vegetation is greener with denser forests due to recovery from multiple historical disturbances. Shifts in the alignment of snowmelt and energy availability due to warmer temperatures may reduce runoff efficiency by changing the amount of precipitation that goes to evapotranspiration versus runoff and recharge. To quantify the alignment between snowmelt and energy on a timeframe needed for predictive models, we propose a new metric, the Vegetation‐Water Alignment Index (VWA), to characterize the synchrony of vegetation greenness and snowmelt and rain inputs. New predictive models show that in addition to April 1st SWE, the previous year's VWA and summer reference evapotranspiration are the most significant predictors of runoff in each watershed and provide more predictive power than traditionally used metrics. These results suggest that the timing of snowmelt relative to the start of the growing season affects not only annual partitioning of streamflow, but can also determine the groundwater storage state that dictates runoff efficiency the following spring.

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Section: Underrepresentation Of Forest Processes In Seasonal Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alignment between water inputs and vegetation green‐up reduces next year's runoff efficiency

Newcomb,

Van Kirk,

Godsey

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Estimating changes in streamflow attributable to wildfire in multiple watersheds using a semi‐distributed watershed model

Wells,

Mankin,

Niemann

et al. 2024

Ecohydrology

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More than half of water supply in the western United States is sourced from forested lands that are increasingly under wildfire risk. Studies have begun to isolate the effects of wildfire on streamflow, but they have typically used coarse temporal resolutions that cannot account for the numerous, interconnected watershed processes that control the responses to rainfall events. In this study, we employed a method to isolate fine‐scale (daily) effects of fire. Wildfire effects were estimated as the difference between measured post‐fire streamflow and unburned scenarios of post‐fire streamflow simulated by a hydrologic model calibrated to pre‐fire conditions. The method was applied to track hydrologic recovery after wildfires in six burned watersheds across the western United States: North Eagle Creek, NM (2012 Little Bear Fire), Lopez Creek, CA (1985 Las Pilitas Fire), City Creek, Devil Canyon Creek, East Twin Creek, and Plunge Creek, CA (2003 Old Fire). All six watersheds experienced prolonged increases of post‐fire streamflow, with the most consistent changes occurring during periods of low streamflow. Following 6 years of increased streamflow, Lopez Creek experienced 6 years of reduced streamflow before returning to the pre‐fire hydrologic regime. North Eagle Creek and the four watersheds affected by the Old Fire continued to have elevated streamflow 9 and 18 years post‐fire, respectively, without returning to the pre‐fire hydrologic regime.

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Assessing the financial impacts of significant wildfires on US capital markets: sectoral analysis

Tavor

2024

Empir Econ

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This study investigates the impact of significant wildfires from 2019 to 2022 on nine sectors within the US capital markets, utilizing a dataset encompassing 161 wildfires. Employing a combination of parametric and nonparametric tests, alongside regression analysis, the research scrutinizes how capital markets in distinct sectors respond to wildfire events, revealing nuanced effects. In sectors directly impacted, the insurance industry displays sensitivity to fire costs, with explicit country or event mentions correlating with sustained returns. Conversely, the real estate sector experiences diminished returns during prolonged wildfires, while the forestry and timber industry exhibits heightened sensitivity to fire costs, especially when ignited by lightning. Within indirect impact sectors, the health industry shows vulnerability to fire-related fatalities, with subsequent negative correlations with country mentions. In the food industry, fire costs contribute positively to returns, while duration and size yield negative effects. The transportation industry witnesses a gradual decline in returns, escalating with the number of fire days or associated costs. In resilience and mitigation sectors, utilities demonstrate recovery post-wildfires, contrasting with consistent declines in the energy sector. Among interconnected sectors, the travel and tourism industry sees increased returns tied to the number of victims, with events caused by human actions having a more pronounced impact. This research underscores the significance of tailored risk assessment and mitigation strategies, offering valuable insights for investors and policymakers navigating the intricate relationship between environmental events and financial markets.

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Wildfire and climate change amplify knowledge gaps linking mountain source-water systems and agricultural water supply in the western United States

Cited by 7 publications

References 65 publications

Alignment between water inputs and vegetation green‐up reduces next year's runoff efficiency

Alignment between water inputs and vegetation green‐up reduces next year's runoff efficiency

Estimating changes in streamflow attributable to wildfire in multiple watersheds using a semi‐distributed watershed model

Assessing the financial impacts of significant wildfires on US capital markets: sectoral analysis

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