Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel

Abstract

Wildland fire management faces unprecedented challenges in the 21 st century: the increasingly apparent effects of climate change, more people and structures in the wildlandurban interface, growing costs associated with wildfire management, and the rise of highimpact fires, to name a few. Given these significant and growing challenges, conventional fire management approaches are unlikely to be effective in the future. Innovative and forward-looking approaches are needed.This study explored wildland fire management futures by using methods and diverse perspectives from futures research. To gain foresight for wildland fire management, we convened a foresight panel consisting of seven leading academic and professional futurists outside of the wildfire community and two wildfire professionals. We engaged the panelists in a series of structured online discussions to elicit their insights and perspectives on the future of wildland fire management.There are five broad areas where the foresight panel members were in full agreement. (1) The level of uncertainty about external developments and future conditions that will set the context for wildland fire management is significantly greater than is recognized in current planning. (2) As conditions change, the traditional fire prevention and suppression approach to wildfire management will prove unsustainable. (3) A new fire resilience approach is emerging as an alternative to traditional viewpoints and practices. (4) All the major strategies needed to implement this approach are already familiar to wildfire managers. (5) There are strong short-term barriers to adopting the fire resilience approach, but the panelists believe its adoption is nearly inevitable between now and mid-century.The use of trade, firm, or corporation names in this publication is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official endorsement or approval by the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the Forest Service of any product or service to the exclusion of others that may be suitable.

Modeling Fuel Treatment Leverage: Encounter Rates, Risk Reduction, and Suppression Cost Impacts

“…In certain fire-prone ecosystems, these challenges are compounded by legacy effects of decades of fire exclusion rendering forest conditions more conducive to extreme fire behavior that is resistant to control and can degrade forest health [10][11][12]. Given a likely future of increasing costs and losses, the need to develop more cost-effective and sustainable approaches to managing wildland fire is apparent [13][14][15][16].…”

Conflicting Discourses on Wildfire Risk and the Role of Local Media in the Amazonian and Temperate Forests

“…Although two-way learning is a more inclusive approach to risk policy communication (Pidgeon et al 2006), it may not be the most suitable form of communication because a more inclusive approach implies multidirectional and interactive learning. The idea of societal learning about wildfire risk involves interactions among the citizens, communities, governments, and other organizations that discuss what each individual can do to create a sustainable approach to wildfire (Olson et al 2015), which includes evaluation (Fra.Paleo 2015b). Emphasizing learning processes implies the deconstruction of hierarchies among different types of knowledge, capacities, and experiences.…”

Measuring Initial Attack Suppression Effectiveness through Burn Probability

“…Secondly, existing analyses do little to inform decision-makers during fire response. While status quo suppression strategies are not supported by the scientific consensus [21,22], managers have no method to quantify or compare consequences of alternative response policies. In this absence, research shows that managers defer short-term risk through aggressive IA suppression at the cost of increasing subsequent fire hazard [23,24].…”