Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?

Iboi, Enahoro; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Gumel, Abba B.

doi:10.1101/2020.05.10.20097428

Cited by 39 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Based on estimates that vaccination coverage of close to 75% may be required to vaccinate to eradicate coronavirus 4,5,10,26 , our estimates that close to 50% of the population may be willing to vaccinate are concerning. It will now be critical to better understand the reasons why a large proportion of the population are sceptical about vaccination against COVID-19.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US: Longitudinal evidence from a nationally representative sample of adults from April–October 2020

Daly

Robinson

2020

Preprint

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IntroductionVaccines against COVID-19 have been developed in unprecedented time. However, the effectiveness of any vaccine is dictated by the proportion of the population willing to be vaccinated. In this observational population-based study we examined intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic.MethodsWe analyzed longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of 7,547 US adults enrolled in the Understanding America Study (UAS). Participants reporting being willing, undecided and unwilling to get vaccinated against coronavirus across 13 assessments conducted from April-October, 2020. Public attitudes to vaccination against the coronavirus were also assessed.ResultsWillingness to vaccinate declined from 71% in April to 53.6% in October. This was explained by an increase in the percentage of participants undecided about vaccinating (from 10.5% to 14.4%) and the portion of the sample unwilling to vaccinate (from 18.5% to 32%). The population subgroups most likely to be undecided/unwilling to vaccinate were those without a degree (undecided: RRR=2.47, 95% CI: 2.04-3.00; unwilling: RRR=1.92, 95% CI: 1.67-2.20), Black participants (undecided: RRR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.73-2.74; unwilling: RRR=1.98, 95% CI: 1.63-2.42), and females (undecided: RRR=1.41, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65; unwilling: RRR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.14-1.46). Those aged 65+, those on high incomes, and other race/ethnicity participants were least likely to be undecided or unwilling to vaccinate. Concerns about potential side effects of a vaccine were common.ConclusionsIntentions to be vaccinated against coronavirus have declined rapidly during the pandemic and close to half of Americans are undecided or unwilling to be vaccinated.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. Simulation studies suggest at least three quarters of the population may need to be vaccinated to extinguish the ongoing coronavirus pandemic 4,5 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US: Longitudinal evidence from a nationally representative sample of adults from April–October 2020

Daly

Robinson

2020

Preprint

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“…Although concerted global efforts are exerted towards developing a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] , no such vaccine is expected to be ready for use in humans by September 2020. Furthermore, there is currently no safe and effective antiviral against the virus.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Could masks curtail the post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19 in the US?

Ngonghala

Iboi

Gumel

2020

Mathematical Biosciences

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106

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The community lockdown measures implemented in the United States from late March to late May of 2020 resulted in a significant reduction in the community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country. However, a number of US states are currently experiencing an alarming post-lockdown resurgence of the pandemic, triggering fears for a devastating second pandemic wave. We designed a mathematical model for addressing the key question of whether or not the universal use of face masks can halt such resurgence (and possibly avert a second wave, without having to undergo another cycle of major community lockdown) in the states of Arizona, Florida, New York and the entire US. Model calibration, using cumulative mortality data for the four jurisdictions during their respective pre-lockdown and lockdown periods, show that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatically-infectious individuals are, by far, the main drivers of the COVID-19 pandemic in each of the jurisdictions. The implication of this result is that detecting and isolating individuals with clinical symptoms of the pandemic alone (even if all of them are found) may not be sufficient to effectively curtail the pandemic. To achieve such control, it is crucially-necessary that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatically-infectious individuals are rapidly detected and isolated (and their contacts rapidly traced and tested). Our study highlights the importance of early implementation of the community lockdown measures. In particular, a sizable reduction in the burden of the pandemic would have been recorded in each of the four jurisdictions if the community lockdown measures were implemented a week or two earlier. These reductions are significantly increased if the early implementation of the lockdown measures was complemented with a public face mask use strategy. With all related control measures maintained at their baseline levels, this study shows that the pandemic would have been almost completely suppressed from significantly taking off if the lockdown measures were implemented two weeks earlier, and if a sizable percentage of the residents of the four jurisdictions wore face masks during the respective lockdown periods. The burden of the second wave of the pandemic would have been reduced significantly if the lockdown measures were extended by two weeks. We simulated the pandemic in the four jurisdictions under three levels of lifting of community lockdown, namely mild, moderate and high. For the scenario where the control measures adopted are maintained at their baseline levels during the lockdown period, our simulations show that the states of Arizona and Florida will record devastating second waves of the pandemic by the end of 2020, while the state of New York and the entire US will record milder second waves. If the community lockdown measures were lifted at the mild lifting level (i.e., only limited community contacts and business activities are allowed, in comparison to the levels of these activities allowed during the corresponding lockdown period)...

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“…Results indicated that the strategy involving practicing proper coughing etiquette, maintain distancing, covering cough and sneezing with disposable tissues and washing of hands is the most cost-effective strategy. Other mathematical models on COVID-19 with varying mathematical concepts can be found in [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%