Will climate change impact distribution of bats in Nepal Himalayas? A case study of five species

Thapa, Sanjan; Baral, Suraj; Hu, Yifeng; Huang, Zhilong; Yang, Yonghui; Dhakal, Maheshwar; Jnawali, Shant Raj; Chettri, Nakul; Racey, Paul A.; Yu, Wenhua; Wu, Yi

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01483

Cited by 26 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 101 publications

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“…Climate projection models have shown that Nepal will experience a temperature rise with an average of 1.4°C by 2030, 2.8°C by 2060, and 4.7°C by 2090 (NCVST 2009). A shift in the elevational range has already been documented in some species, like bats (Thapa et al . 2021) and pheasants (Chhetri et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…A similar case was also reported by Thapa et al . (2021) while projecting the future distribution of Great Himalayan Leaf-nosed Bat ( Hipposideros armiger ) in Nepal, where annual mean precipitation was the most important contributor. Although temperature and carbon emission have a linear relationship, precipitation does not vary linearly but depends on moisture available, the amount of radiation, and its position on Earth (Trenberth 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The potential distribution of the yellow monitor, Varanus flavescens (Hardwick & Gray) under multiple climate, land cover and dispersal scenarios in Nepal

Baral

Kunwar²,

Adhikari³

et al. 2023

Wildlife Res.

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Human-induced changes in climate and land cover have altered the distribution of fauna around the globe. Some reptiles have been found to be vulnerable to these changes; therefore, studies to identify the impact of the changes on other groups of reptiles are necessary. Aims. We aimed to study the impact of climate and land cover change on the yellow monitor (Varanus flavescens) in Nepal. We also aimed to identify the current distribution range and predict the potential distribution under multiple climate change, corresponding land cover change, and dispersion scenarios in the near-and mid-future. Methods. We used available presence locations with a candidate set of the least-correlated environmental variables and an Ensemble of Small Models (ESM), a Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach suitable for species with small sample size. Additionally, dispersal scenarios of 1 km, 5 km, and 10 km were added to the model to determine the future distribution under the dispersal scenarios. Key results. We found soil particle size, distance to forest, precipitation of wettest quarter, bulk density, and elevation were the five most important variables contributing to the distribution of the species. The Terai lowland and wide valleys in Outer Himalayas are currently suitable but are expected to experience a substantial decrease under most future climate projections and dispersal scenarios. Conclusions. The distribution is mostly dependent on soil-related variables; however, climatic variables might have a greater impact on future suitability. Implications. Limiting emissions contributing to climatic changes, conserving the soil outside the protected areas, and the potential areas where the species will not experience habitat loss might contribute to the conservation of the species.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential distribution of the yellow monitor, Varanus flavescens (Hardwick & Gray) under multiple climate, land cover and dispersal scenarios in Nepal

Baral

Kunwar²,

Adhikari³

et al. 2023

Wildlife Res.

Self Cite

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“…More than 83% (44 species) of the bat species recorded from the country (53) (Jnawali et al 2011) (Thapa et al 2021) are also confirmed from five PAs each (Annex I). However, Thapa (2011) and Pearch (2011) reported Rh.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Occurrence of bats in protected areas of Nepal: An update on species richness and distribution records

Thapa

Dahal²,

Ghimire

et al. 2021

Nep. J. Zool.

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Bat surveys in 20 Protected Areas (PAs) of Nepal are sporadic and/or had targeted purposively a few localities, therefore, bat diversity from the PAs is yet to be explored. Bat species richness in PAs from two reviews until 2011 are inconsistent. In total, seven surveys have been undertaken in six PAs since 2011. Hence, an update and revision on chiropteran account from the PAs of Nepal is warranted. We reviewed available literatures and museum collection records, and further collated and plotted bat occurrence coordinates into the country and mapped them. In total, 44 of 53 bat species in Nepal have been recorded from 12 PAs. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) reports highest species richness (22) followed by Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park and Buffer Zone (SNNP & BZ) (15), Makalu Barun National Park and Buffer Zone (MBNP & BZ) (14) and Chitwan National Park and Buffer Zone (CNP & BZ) (13). In contrast, survey localities are more in CNP & BZ (12), ACA and SNNP & BZ (equally 11) and MBNP & BZ (10). Species richness increased proportionately with higher survey efforts and including more habitat types in respective PAs. Three species: Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, Rh. pearsonii and Rh. sinicus are recorded from six out of 12 PAs. Pipistrellus javanicus (12), Hipposideros armiger (10), Cynopterus sphinx (9) and Rh. sinicus (9) are recorded from maximum number of surveyed localities in the PAs. All the PAs have limited occurrence records. Therefore, intensive surveys are recommended for understanding actual chiropteran diversity to the PAs of Nepal.

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“…They are a visually striking flying mammal (easily noticed and forming large colonies) that play a critical ecological role in pollination and seed dispersal and can carry large pollen loads and seeds over long distances (Fleming et al 2009). Their regional diversity and distributional range are expected to be impacted by climate change across several areas within their global extent, which includes Africa, Nepal, Southeast Asia, and Australia (Arumoogum et al 2019;Hughes et al 2012;Thapa et al 2021;Welbergen et al 2007). Extreme weather events have a particularly strong impact on flying foxes (Pteropus spp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicted the impacts of climate change and extreme-weather events on the future distribution of fruit bats in Australia

Diengdoh

Ondei

Hunt

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Aim: Fruit bats (Megachiroptera) are important pollinators and seed dispersers whose distribution might be affected by climate change and extreme-weather events. We assessed the potential impacts of those changes, particularly more frequent and intense heatwaves, and drought, on the future distribution of fruit bats in Australia. We also focus a case study on Tasmania, the southernmost island state of Australia, which is currently devoid of fruit bats but might serve as a future climate refugium. Location: Australia (continental scale study) and Tasmania. Methods: Species distribution modelling was used to predict the occurrence of seven species of fruit bats, using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms. Predictors included extreme-weather events (heatwave and drought), vegetation (as a proxy for habitat) and bioclimatic variables. Predictions were made for the current day distribution and future (2050 and 2070) scenarios using multiple emission scenarios and global circulation models. Results: Changes in climate and extreme weather events are forecasted to impact all fruit-bat species, with the loss and gain of suitable areas being predominantly along the periphery of a species current distribution. A higher emission scenario resulted in a higher loss of areas for Grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) and Spectacled flying fox (P. conspicillatus) but a higher gain of areas for the Northern blossom bat (Macroglossus minimus). The Grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is the only study species predicted to potentially occur in Tasmania under future scenarios. Main conclusions: Fruit bats are likely to respond to climate change and extreme weather by migrating to more suitable areas, including regions not historically inhabited by those species such as Tasmania possibly leading to human-wildlife conflicts. Conservation strategies (e.g., habitat protection) should focus on areas we found to remain suitable under future scenarios, and not be limited by state-political boundaries.

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Will climate change impact distribution of bats in Nepal Himalayas? A case study of five species

Cited by 26 publications

References 101 publications

The potential distribution of the yellow monitor, Varanus flavescens (Hardwick & Gray) under multiple climate, land cover and dispersal scenarios in Nepal

The potential distribution of the yellow monitor, Varanus flavescens (Hardwick & Gray) under multiple climate, land cover and dispersal scenarios in Nepal

Occurrence of bats in protected areas of Nepal: An update on species richness and distribution records

Predicted the impacts of climate change and extreme-weather events on the future distribution of fruit bats in Australia

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