Will Global Climate Change Favor the Kissing bug (Triatoma infestans)?

Abstract

Triatoma infestans, known as the kissing bug, is one of the main causes of Chagas disease in the South American. Due to the parasite secreted by this species, many protection studies have been carried out by the World Health Organization. However, it has been determined that the conservation efforts are not model-based and at a sufficient level. This study was carried out to determine the effects of changing climate conditions on the kissing bug on a global scale. MaxEnt was preferred as the modelling method and Chelsa V2.1. was preferred as the climate variables. Kissing bug is in the “good” model category with ROC values of 0.867/0.866 on the training/test dataset of current model. According to the variable value results contributing to the present model, the Chelsa climate envelope models for the year 2100 were simulated. As a result, it was determined that the distribution of the kissing bug expanded according to different climate envelope models for the year 2100. This study raises alarms that serious health problems from Chagas disease will emerge in 2100 due to the expansion of the kissing bug.