Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965–2008

Chen, Chang; Lei, Chengxia; Deng, Aixing; Qian, Chunrong; Hoogmoed, W.B.; Zhang, Weijian

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.013

Cited by 153 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…S1c), suggesting that decreases in Yp and Ypw should be ascribed to increase in temperature and particularly decrease in solar radiation. By contrast, in northern, northeastern and southeastern China, Yp and Ypw increased due to increases in solar radiation and temperature, which improved light and heat resources in these regions (Chen et al, 2011b;Wang et al, 2014b;Zhao et al, 2014). Changes in precipitation were quite small and insignificant, which had less impact on trends in Ypw.…”

Section: Ygp Is Shrinking Due To the Relative Changes In Ya And Ypmentioning

confidence: 97%

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Tao

Zhang

et al. 2015

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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A B S T R A C TThe precise spatially explicit knowledge about crop yield potentials and yield gaps is essential to guide sustainable intensification of agriculture. In this study, the maize yield potentials from 1980 to 2008 across the major maize production regions of China were firstly estimated by county using ensemble simulation of a well-validated large scale crop model, i.e., MCWLA-Maize model. Then, the temporal and spatial patterns of maize yield potentials and yield gaps during 1980-2008 were presented and analyzed. The results showed that maize yields became stagnated at 32.4% of maize-growing areas during the period. In the major maize production regions, i.e., northeastern China, the North China Plain (NCP) and southwestern China, yield gap percentages were generally less than 40% and particularly less than 20% in some areas. By contrast, in northern and southern China, where actual yields were relatively lower, yield gap percentages were generally larger than 40%. The areas with yield gap percentages less than 20% and less than 40% accounted for 8.2% and 27.6% of maize-growing areas, respectively. During the period, yield potentials decreased in the NCP and southwestern China due to increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation; by contrast, increased in northern, northeastern and southeastern China due to increases in both temperature and solar radiation. Yield gap percentages decreased generally by $~2% per year across the major maize production regions, although increased in some areas in northern and northeastern China. The shrinking of yield gap was due to increases in actual yields and decreases in yield potentials in the NCP and southwestern China; and due to larger increases in actual yields than in yield potentials in northeastern and southeastern China. The results highlight the importance of sustainable intensification of agriculture to close yield gaps, as well as breeding new cultivars to increase yield potentials, to meet the increasing food demand.

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Section: Ygp Is Shrinking Due To the Relative Changes In Ya And Ypmentioning

confidence: 97%

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Tao

Zhang

et al. 2015

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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“…Moreover, corn showed negative impacts for global net loss of 3.8% since 1980 to 2008 at the global scale, which indicated than corn potential yield declined by 8.3% for each 1°C increase in mean minimum and maximum temperatures during the full crop growing season [12]. However, Chen et al [7] indicated that the yields increased with minimum temperature during the full crop growing season, especially during the months May and September in CBNC. However, in CBNC, yields of corn have steadily increased since the 1980s since options for autonomous adaptation were realized by farmers [7,9].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…However, Chen et al [7] indicated that the yields increased with minimum temperature during the full crop growing season, especially during the months May and September in CBNC. However, in CBNC, yields of corn have steadily increased since the 1980s since options for autonomous adaptation were realized by farmers [7,9]. As a result, the yield of corn increased with time in CBNC indicating cultivar selection (i.e., stabilized or extended phonological durations) and improved management (i.e., increased pant density) played a critical important role in increasing the corn yield.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, this will be a big challenge under the warming future climate [5]. Although, many previous studies showed that crop production might benefit from future warming if suitable adaptations are conducted for cropping system [6][7]. Effects of temperature increase on crop production, however, can be either negative or positive, which it was depending on the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Weather Conditions Associated with Corn Simulated Yield in the Corn Belt of Northeastern China during the Past Three Decades

Sun¹,

Liu²

2017

Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)

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Abstract-The Corn Belt of Northeastern China (CBNC)accounts for about 35% of the nation' corn production in China. In the past three decades, corn yield in CBNC have increased under changing in climate and crop management. It is important to investigate the contribution of these changing factors to the historical yield increases to improve our understanding of how we can ensure increased yield in the future. In this paper we conducted correlation and regression analyses of climate and simulated corn yield over the period 1980 to 2011 in CBNC. It was found that over three decades, the daily mean, minimum temperature and growing degree days (GDD) per ten year increased at a rate of 0.37°C, 0.47°C and 51°C, respectively. In contrast, the relative humidity and daily mean wind speed decreased gradually at a rate of 0.18 and 1.8 km day -1 , respectively. Not significant change in precipitation was found, although differences between years were large. The daily minimum temperature and solar radiation were the dominant factor to corn potential production. According to a regression analysis of the corn potential yield and the climate factors, the results indicate that corn potential yield decreased 1010 and 1314 kg ha -1 for each 1°C increase growing season mean and minimum temperature, respectively; rain-fed yield declined 2819 and 2437 kg ha -1 for each increase 1°C growing season mean and maximum temperature, respectively. To further improve the potential yield of corn in the coming decades, efforts should be paid to break the potential ceiling reduce the yield gaps by breeding higher yield variety and introduction of new agricultural technology.

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“…Meanwhile, improvements in suitability were projected on those high elevation areas of the county. Empirical study of Chen et al (2011) showed that increase in minimum temperature can also be favorable to corn yield. Table 5 summarizes the monthly proportion of changes in climatic suitability of corn based on temperature.…”

Section: Temperature Suitabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Salvacion

2017

Quaestiones Geographicae

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SAlvAcion A.r., 2017. Mapping spatio-temporal changes in climatic suitability of corn in the Philippines under future climate condition. Quaestiones Geographiceae 36(1), Bogucki Wydownictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 105-120, 11 figs, 5 tables.AbStrAct: This study assessed the spatio-temporal changes in corn climatic suitability in the Philippines under future climate condition. Using extracted climatic data from WorldClim database for the country under baseline and future climate condition, changes in corn suitability was assessed using fuzzy logic approach and published rainfall and temperature requirement of the crop. Based on the data, the large portion of the country will experience increase in monthly total rainfall (88%) while increase in monthly mean and minimum temperature under future climate condition is projected for the entire country. These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location. On the average, changes in rainfall resulted in reduction (8%) and improvement (6%) in corn suitability while increase in temperature resulted in 5% and 0.4% reduction and improvement, respectively.

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Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965–2008

Cited by 153 publications

References 24 publications

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Weather Conditions Associated with Corn Simulated Yield in the Corn Belt of Northeastern China during the Past Three Decades

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

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