Will peak car observed in the North occur in the South? A demographic approach with case studies of Montreal, Lille, Juarez and Puebla

Abstract

In most developed countries, total car driving is stagnating since the early 2000s. This trend can be attributed primarily to people living in the largest urban areas: trips have become less frequent (with unbroken workdays) and less exclusively taken by car (as more young adults adopt multimodal behaviors). A review of the literature shows that demography is an important factor explaining peak car. It is examined through case studies from cities of different level of development.To represent developed economies we chose Lille in the North of France, and Montreal in Canada. For the emerging economies we chose two Mexican cities, Juarez, on the northern border of Mexico where the level of motorization is quite high, and Puebla more traditional, where car ownership is lower. A straightforward combination of fixed mobility by age group with the evolving number of inhabitants suggests that the demographic transition (i.e. a slower growth of the number of inhabitants with population ageing) shows a peak in the total amount of car travel. Then, considering travel behavior in terms of distance travelled per person per day, an age-cohort demographic projection model is implemented for each case-study in order to consider the extent to which, and in what time frame, the trends observed in developed cities could spread southward to the emerging economies.

The Effects of Mobility as a Service and Autonomous Vehicles on People’s Willingness to Own a Car in the Future

“…Factors related to life situation, such as living alone and childlessness, have a reducing impact on car ownership and on having a driving licence [11]. Some Western European countries, like the UK, the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy, have already seen the peak car use during the first five years of the millennium, resulting to a decline of car use after that point [12] and in the United States the growth halted in 2000 [13]. However, there is evidence of a continuing increase of total vehicle kilometres again after 2009 is the USA [14].…”

“…However, there is evidence of a continuing increase of total vehicle kilometres again after 2009 is the USA [14]. In addition to this, many other developed countries, such as Germany, France, Norway, the UK and Japan show a clear stabilisation in annual kilometres driven, and the change in car use has been particularly apparent in the 20-29 age group [13].…”

“…We have already identified many trends that decrease car ownership, such as increasingly eco-friendly thought, less interest in car ownership among younger generations, population aging and the smaller size of future households. (e.g., [11,13,15,16]). Hence, it is not surprising that the models concerning hypothetical future mobility services (MaaS and AVs) as alternatives to car ownership resulted in low coefficiencies of determination as respondents' individual attitudes towards new technology have an important role in their answers.…”

Questions about hyper-mobility. Introduction to the special issue

“…Entre 2007 et 2012, le transport des marchandises a par exemple diminué de 18 %. Certains démontrent avec pertinence que nous aurions atteint le « peak car » (MADRE, 2018 ;CORNUT, 2017). Et au-delà des périodes de crise, serait-il possible d'aller vers un découplage entre la croissance économique et celle des transports ?…”

Generational Differences in Household Car Ownership

“…They confirmed that the generation effect existed and population aging would contribute to a reduction in the level of car ownership. In addition, Bussière et al [20] demonstrated that the peak car phenomenon is projected to occur in developing countries due to the demographic transition, including a slowdown of population growth and population aging.…”