Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

Abstract

Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc

“…Recent mass mortality events involving multiple species of planktivorous and piscivorous seabirds and marine mammals suggest a real-world signal that climate warming has and will negatively impact upper trophic foragers. In the highly studied California Current, projected increases in SWT were identified as driving forces in predicted population declines for the planktivorous Cassin’s Auklet as well as decline in habitat suitability for piscivorous Tufted Puffins, likely due to impacts to zooplankton and forage fish timing, duration, and abundance [69, 96]. Ultimately, modeling future biological responses to changing physical drivers is very complex, with incomplete knowledge about the future variability in forage resources introducing substantial variability among model realizations.…”

Unusual mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) in the eastern Bering Sea

“…St Matthew Island: ~3,500; St Lawrence: ~7,000 –[74]) dispersing southwards, then this event would have been associated with large declines in breeding colony size (26–72% loss). Tufted puffins have sustained dramatic declines in the Gulf of Alaska [75], as well as in British Columbia [76] and on colonies in the northern California Current [77], making this event, although spatially constrained and absolutely small relative to other documented Alcid MMEs [38, 45], of concern. However, because there is no definitive way to assign collected carcasses to their respective colonies, the true population impact of this event remains unknown.…”

“…This mortality event represents one of multiple seabird mortality events that have occurred in the Northeast Pacific from 2014 to 2018 (e.g., [38, 45]), cumulatively suggestive of broad-scale ecosystem change. Although the absolute number of carcass recoveries was small (< 500), total estimated Tufted puffin mortality was in the thousands, and may represent a significant portion of several Bering Sea colonies in addition to Pribilof Islands breeders, which is particularly concerning given recorded declines throughout the southern part of their range [75–77]. Fey et al [39] suggest that MMEs are indicators of a changing world, and particularly of climate warming.…”

Range-wide changes in the North American Tufted Puffin Fratercula cirrhata breeding population over 115 years

“…It is becoming increasingly clear that Tufted Puffin reproduction and population trends are sensitive to warm ocean waters and weak upwelling conditions that can cause poor ocean productivity and ultimately a reduction in forage nekton populations (Sydeman et al 2017). Under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, Hart et. al.…”

“…The Tufted Puffin Fratercula cirrhata is an iconic seabird of the North Pacific Rim that appears vulnerable to warming ocean conditions (Golubova 2002, Gjerdrum et al 2003, Hart et al 2018), changes in prey abundance (Baird 1990, Hatch and Sanger 1992, Hipfner et al 2007), and oil spills (Piatt and Ford 1996, Tenyo Maru Oil Spill Natural Resource Trustees et al 2000). In the southern portions of its range, Puffins have decreased dramatically at some colonies or disappeared entirely from others in both the eastern and western Pacific (McChesney and Carter 2008, Kocourek et al 2009, Hanson and Wiles 2015, Blight and McClelland 2022).…”