Will the COVID-19 pandemic lead to a tsunami of suicides? A Swedish nationwide analysis of historical and 2020 data

Abstract

BackgroundVarious surveys have documented a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population’s mental health. There is widespread concern about a surge of suicides, but evidence supporting a link between global pandemics and suicide is very limited. Using historical data from the three major influenza pandemics of the 20th century, and recently released data from the first half of 2020, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.MethodsAnnual data on influenza death rates and suicide rates were extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden from 1910-1978, covering the three 20th century pandemics, and from Statistics Sweden for the period from January to June of each year during 2000-2020. COVID-19 death data were available for the first half of 2020. We implemented non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term effect of increases and decreases in influenza death rates on suicide rates during 1910-1978. Analyses were done separately for men and women. Descriptive analyses were used for the available 2020 data.FindingsBetween 1910-1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides. The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women. Suicide rates in January-June 2020 revealed a slight decrease compared to the corresponding rates in January-June 2019 (relative decrease by −1.2% among men and −12.8% among women).InterpretationWe found no evidence of short or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics or during the first six months of 2020 (when the first wave of COVID-19 occurred). Concerns about a substantial increase of suicides may be exaggerated. The media should be cautious when reporting news about suicides during the current pandemic.

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

“…Our findings align with those of other published studies from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, in which there were either decreases or no changes in suicide rates as a function of the pandemic. [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][19][20][21][22] Our findings are also consistent with emerging reports in the grey literature from various countries (eg, England). 27 In some cases, this consistency is not surprising because we used the same data sources, but the fact that we found similar patterns in many other countries increases our confidence in this finding.…”

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-harm and suicidal behaviour: update of living systematic review

“…In total, six studies spanned several countries or were worldwide, including one using a Reddit mental health dataset (almost half of users are from the USA); 13 were from the United States; seven from China; nine from India; five from the United Kingdom; four each from Japan and Nepal; and between one and three each from Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Qatar and Switzerland. All articles were based on observational studies: twenty-five were case series with a sample of two or more (although Jefsen et al, 2020a andRohde et al, 2020 were based on the same case series); thirteen were cross sectional surveys; two were based on social media posts; six were modelling studies; twenty were service utilisation studies; and nine assessed suicide rates. Studies are summarised by these study types in Table 1 through Table 6.…”

Retrospective study of non-natural manners of death in Ontario: Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health measures

“…There has been considerable variation in the literature with respect to death by suicide, with reports of rates decreasing, 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 increasing, 7 , 8 , 9 , 11 , 12 , 13 and remaining steady. 8 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 Other reports have shown death by suicide varied during the pandemic based on sex and ethnicity. 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 12 , 13 These include male and female death by suicide rates peaking at distinct stages during the pandemic, 12 decreased male death by suicide, 9 , 10 increased female death by suicide, 9 , 13 and increased death by suicide rates for racial minorities compared to Caucasian populations.…”