Will the Eastern Nile countries be able to sustain their crop production by 2050? An outlook from water and land perspectives

Ayyad, Saher; Khalifa, Muhammad

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145769

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 75 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Water availability to plants is not only one of the limiting constraints for crop production and food security (Funk et al, 2008;Funk and Brown, 2009;Kang et al, 2009;Ayyad and Khalifa, 2021) but also for the health and functioning of the vegetative ecosystem in natural settings (Mayes et al, 2020;Sabathier et al, 2021;Warter et al, 2021). Forecasts of crop water requirement and irrigation demand for major crops like maize, barley, and wheat (Ewaid and Abded, 2019) are paramount for preparing advisory reports related to the timing of planting, crop choice, and irrigation scheduling, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, where high atmospheric evaporative demand and erratic rainfall make farming a risky economic activity (Nyakudya and Stroosnijder, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

stoPET v1.0: a stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) represents the evaporative demand in the atmosphere for the removal of water from the land and is an essential variable for understanding and modelling land–atmosphere interactions. Weather generators are often used to generate stochastic rainfall time series; however, no such model exists for the generation of a stochastically plausible PET time series. Here we develop a stochastic PET generator, stoPET, by leveraging a recently published global dataset of hourly PET at 0.1∘ resolution (hPET). stoPET is designed to simulate realistic time series of PET that capture the diurnal and seasonal variability in hPET and to support the simulation of various scenarios of climate change. The parsimonious model is based on a sine function fitted to the monthly average diurnal cycle of hPET, producing parameters that are then used to generate any number of synthetic series of randomised hourly PET for a specific climate scenario at any point of the global land surface between 55∘ N and 55∘ S. In addition to supporting a stochastic analysis of historical PET, stoPET also incorporates three methods to account for potential future changes in atmospheric evaporative demand to rising global temperature. These include (1) a user-defined percentage increase in annual PET, (2) a step change in PET based on a unit increase in temperature, and (3) the extrapolation of the historical trend in hPET into the future. We evaluated stoPET at a regional scale and at 12 locations spanning arid and humid climatic regions around the globe. stoPET generates PET distributions that are statistically similar to hPET and an independent PET dataset from CRU, thereby capturing their diurnal/seasonal dynamics, indicating that stoPET produces physically plausible diurnal and seasonal PET variability. We provide examples of how stoPET can generate large ensembles of PET for future climate scenario analysis in sectors like agriculture and water resources with minimal computational demand.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

stoPET v1.0: a stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…average yield, and that of high-income countries, the potential production (by bridging yield gaps 2, and 3) must be much higher than the potential reported above (Table 2). However, using the approach of maximum achieved yield provides a modest and more realistic approximation of potential yield, assuming that this yield level can be achieved again (Ayyad and Khalifa, 2021).…”

Section: Global Yield Averagementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of global sorghum production, tolerance, and climate risk

Khalifa

Eltahir

2023

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Some cereal crops can withstand harsh growing conditions, and, hence, can be considered an important line of defense against food shortage under climate change. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Monech) is the main food crop for millions of people, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This crop performs well under input constraints (e.g., limited water) and exhibits high resilience to adverse climate conditions (e.g., high temperature, drought, and waterlogging), making it a star crop for combating hunger under climate change. However, sorghum and other similar crops are not tolerant in absolute terms. Climate change could push the growing conditions of these crops beyond the limits they can tolerate, jeopardizing the food security of millions of people around the world. In this research, we analyzed the current status of sorghum production, trends, and factors controlling sorghum yield using empirical approaches. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa, this crop is cultivated widely under unfavorable climate conditions and sub-optimal input levels. Our findings raise multiple concerns as well as highlight opportunities for the sustainability of sorghum cultivation in a future with climate change. Sorghum yield seems to increase persistently despite global warming due to an improved inputs approach, offering hope that similar adaptation approaches can be fruitful, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. A combination of interventions including adequate use of fertilizers and technology adoption (e.g., tolerant cultivars), efficient management (e.g. improved irrigation), and better agronomic practices, is the key to boosting sorghum yield and ensuring the sustainability of this important crop under a warmer climate.

show abstract

“…Downstream countries will now need to include these foreign actors in the negotiations as they also appear to have a stake in these waters. Ethiopia's intensive use of water for these deals will have much bigger ramifications regionally (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021).…”

Section: Box 1 the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam And Feddan Groundw...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Nile basin land and water acquisition research agenda: A policy brief

Enserink,

Abazeed,

Elhatow

et al. 2022

International Journal of Water Governance

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Land and water acquisitions exacerbate the complexity of the water allocation challenges in the Nile region and consequently have contributed to the growing tensions along the Nile River. Smallholders are especially negatively affected by the increase in water use by foreign investors, the loss of access to the commons, and disposition of ownership. This policy brief is a result of a scenario workshop organized in early 2020 in Leiden, the Netherlands, during which some 30 young scientists from a variety of disciplines joined forces to develop four plausible Nile-futures in 2050. The exercise revealed new challenges and potential knowledge gaps in four areas of policy-based research: local innovation and technology, institutional capacity, gover- nance, and investment regulation. Most urgent was the recommendation to have a unified basin- wide university, which would support basin-wide legislation to promote sustainable farming and reduce the negative impacts of land and water acquisitions.

show abstract

Will the Eastern Nile countries be able to sustain their crop production by 2050? An outlook from water and land perspectives

Cited by 14 publications

References 75 publications

stoPET v1.0: a stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

stoPET v1.0: a stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts

Assessment of global sorghum production, tolerance, and climate risk

Nile basin land and water acquisition research agenda: A policy brief

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About