Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?

Abstract

Abstract:The steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China's energy reformation in the future. Therefore, analyzing the factors underlying the phenomenon of the decreasing steam coal price is significant. In this study, we first qualitatively analyze five main factors, namely, economy, supply, demand, substitutes, and port stocks. On the basis of the relationships among these five factors, we obtain the causality diagram and the system flow diagram of coal price for further quantitative research. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using the system dynamics (SD) method and determine the simulated price from 2012 to 2017. Finally, we discuss the running results and come to the conclusion that the steam coal price will continue to decrease under the combined actions of the five main factors and it will not rebound in the near future.

On the pricing effects of bitcoin mining in the fossil fuel market: The case of coal

“…In the literature, price dynamics in the coal market have been related to various driving factors including the output value of the industry, gross domestic product and retail price index (Ding et al, 2010), oil demand and supply shocks (Zamani, 2016), economic downturn and excessive production (Guo et al, 2016b), coal production and imports (Zhu and Wang, 2017), production costs and economic growth (Ikenberry, 2018), environmental regulations and falling natural gas prices (Coglianese et al, 2020), while Jiang et al (2020) highlight the interconnection between coal and new energy prices. Lin and Li (2015) suggest the presence of a slow transition in the coal market wherein the increasing use of other sources will continue to limit the use of fossil fuels such as coal due to technical difficulties and comparatively high costs.…”

Strategies of Two-Level Green Technology Investments for Coal Supply Chain under Different Dominant Modes

“…However, under the normalcy of a new economy, coal enterprises are characterized by high-cost consumption and low profits [15], so the authorities need to implement barriers, including financial dilemmas [16]. Furthermore, external low-carbon environmental regulations stimulate environmental and financial performance [17], with government subsidies serving as policy incentives, and the Chinese government encourages R&D investment for sustainable development [18].…”

Recent Advances in Energy Time Series Forecasting

“…In particular, the authors in [16] discussed and wondered if the steam coal price will rebound under the new economy normalcy in China. By contrast, one-year-ahead demand forecast of city natural gas using seasonal time series methods was introduced in [17].…”