Will there be a third COVID-19 wave? A SVEIRD model based study of India’s situation

Kannan, Dwarakesh; Gurusriram, R.; Banerjee, Rabin; Bhattacharjee, Srijit; Varadwaj, Pritish Kumar

doi:10.1101/2021.05.16.21257300

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…India is currently facing the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, even though the daily positivity rate is declining, but there are predictions for a possibility of a third wave. 1 India launched its first phase vaccination drive for the healthcare workers (HCWs) on 16th January 2021. Primarily the vaccination was started with COVISHEILD (Serum Institute India-AstraZeneca) and later, COVAXIN (Bharat biotech) was included in the vaccination drive.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in COVISHIELD (AstraZeneca-SII) Vaccinated Healthcare Workers in a Tertiary Cancer Care Centre of North-East India

Sarma,

Das,

Rai

et al. 2023

Preprint

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COVID-19 vaccination of Healthcare workers and vulnerable groups remain priority in containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection and health complications arising post COVID-19. In India, COVISHIELD is the major part of COVID-19 vaccination drive. post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and its impact on severity as well as mortality need to be assessed in vaccinated population. The study included 350 COVISHIELD vaccinated HCWs in tertiary cancer care centre of North-East India. A total of 16 symptomatic HCWs (4.57%) were confirmed as SARS-CoV-2 positive. Among SARS-CoV-2 positive FV HCWs none were positive within 14 days, 13.33 % within 15 to 30 days, 53.33% within 30 to 45 days, and 33.33% after 45 or more days. None of the SARS-CoV-2 positive HCWs required oxygen support or hospitalisation. We also found that 66.67% FV HCWs (n=10) had Ct values below 20, 20% (n=3) had Ct values in between 20-25 and 13.33% (n=2) had Ct values in between 30 to 35. In North-East India COVISHIELD FV HCWs HCW,SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 symptoms were mild. Majority of FV HCWs have RT-PCR COVID-19 positive Ct Value was below 20. SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred mostly after 15 days to 45 days or more post vaccination.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in COVISHIELD (AstraZeneca-SII) Vaccinated Healthcare Workers in a Tertiary Cancer Care Centre of North-East India

Sarma,

Das,

Rai

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Nevertheless, the virus is still evolving and highly contagious variants of the virus may refute such speculations. The emergence of contagious and/or virulent variants, lower immunity of the vulnerable individuals, and lack of participation in COVID-19 preventive measures may contribute to a resurgence of the COVID-19 cases [ 11 , 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A cross sectional study to examine factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, hesitancy and refusal in urban and rural settings in Tamil Nadu, India

et al. 2022

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The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic left the Indian healthcare system overwhelmed. The severity of a third wave will depend on the success of the vaccination drive; however, even with a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine, hesitancy can be an obstacle to achieving high levels of coverage. Our study aims to estimate the population’s acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine in an Indian district. A pilot community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from March-May 2021. The data was collected from eight primary health centres in Tamil Nadu. The eligible study participants were interviewed using a self-constructed questionnaire. A total of 3,130 individuals responded to the survey. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to assess the factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Results of our study showed that 46% percent (n = 1432) of the respondents would accept the COVID-19 vaccine if available. Acceptance for the COVID-19 vaccine was higher among males (54%), individuals aged 18-24years (62%), those with higher education (77%), having the higher income (73%), and employed (51%). Individuals with no education (OR: 2.799, 95% CI = 1.103–7.108), and low income (OR: OR: 10.299, 95% CI: 4.879–21.741), were significant predictors of vaccine hesitancy (p < 0.05). Living in urban residence (OR: 0.699, 95% CI = 0.55–0.888) and age between 18 to 25 years (OR: 0.549, 95% CI = 0.309–0.977) were protective factor of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. While individuals in the age group 25-54years (OR = 1.601, 95%CI = 1.086–2.359), fewer education (OR = 4.8, 95% CI = 2.448–9.412,), low income (OR = 2.628, 95% CI = 1.777–3.887) and unemployment (OR = 1.351, 95% CI = 1.06–1.722) had high odds of refusing the COVID-19 vaccine. Concerns and suspicions about the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine (63%) was the major reasons causing hesitancy towards the COVID-19 vaccine The public health authorities and government need to design, develop and implement targeted interventions to enhance awareness about COVID-19 vaccines, and barriers and enablers to vaccine acceptance among individuals across diverse settings. Emphasis on involving local and religious leaders, ASHA workers, community healthcare workers, Anganwadi workers, and auxiliary nurse midwives can help to overcome context-specific barriers in areas of low COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, especially in rural settings.

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COVID-19 treatment in children

Panda

Sharawat

Vivekanand

et al. 2021

Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care

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Background: Exact information about the efficacy of various medications proposed by regulatory bodies in children with COVID-19 is limited due to the lack of controlled trials in the existing literature. Methods: Different electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, COCHRANE CENTRAL, LitCovid, medRxiv, and bioRxiv) were searched for articles describing the management of COVID-19 cases in children with 18 shortlisted medications. Prospective/retrospective studies/case series (with at least 20 cases) reporting COVID-19 in patients aged ≤14 years were searched to collect information regarding clinical details and severity of participants, medications used, and outcome. The pooled estimate of these parameters across studies was performed using a random-effect or fixed-effect meta-analysis depending on the degree of heterogeneity. Results: From a total of 5794 records, 97 studies/case series (8243 patients) fulfilled the eligibility criteria and were included in this systematic review. A total of 21% children received at least one medication specifically used for COVID-19. While antivirals were used in 15.3% of children, remedesivir was the most commonly used antiviral drug in 6.2% of included children without many reports of serious adverse effects. There was a more prevalent use of anti-inflammatory medications including corticosteroids (27.8%, P = 0.01). Total 91% of severe cases described in literature in children received some anti-inflammatory medications. Among them, corticosteroids (17%) and Intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) (17.5%) were the most predominant followed by interferon (4.2%), tocilizumab (1.5%), and anakinra (0.8%). The most predominant therapy among multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) cases were IVIG (81%), followed by aspirin (67%), corticosteroids (64%), inotropes (62%), and anticoagulation (56%, mostly low molecular weight heparin, LMWH). Overall mortality was only 1.3%, but when we analyzed separately including only cases with moderate and severe disease, the mortality rate was 4.6%. Conclusion: Among pharmacological modalities, anti-inflammatory agents like corticosteroids and antivirals like remdesivir have the most promising evidence for severe cases of pediatric COVID-19. Intravenous immunoglobulin and other anti-inflammatory/immunomodulatory agents like anakinra, aspirin, and anticoagulants have important therapeutic role in cases with MIS-C. Most of the mild cases recover with conservative treatment only.

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Will there be a third COVID-19 wave? A SVEIRD model based study of India’s situation

Cited by 3 publications

References 20 publications

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in COVISHIELD (AstraZeneca-SII) Vaccinated Healthcare Workers in a Tertiary Cancer Care Centre of North-East India

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in COVISHIELD (AstraZeneca-SII) Vaccinated Healthcare Workers in a Tertiary Cancer Care Centre of North-East India

A cross sectional study to examine factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, hesitancy and refusal in urban and rural settings in Tamil Nadu, India

COVID-19 treatment in children

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