Will Warming Climate Affect the Characteristics of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Associated Extremes Over the Gangetic Plains in India?

Abstract

The Indo‐Gangetic Plain (IGP) bears great agricultural importance and contributes to a major share of national GDP of India. In present study, a location‐specific comprehensive analysis of rainfall extremes over IGP, using second generation CORDEX‐CORE simulations in the present and future scenarios (under high emission RCP8.5 scenario) have been performed. Here, the high‐resolution CORDEX‐CORE simulations with International Centre for Theoretical Physics's regional climate model (RegCM4.7) have been considered for the detailed rainfall characteristics assessment. Twelve thresholds‐based climate indices have been analyzed to investigate the characteristics of rainfall extremes during three‐time slices: 1986–2005 (historical), 2041–2060 (near future) and 2080–2099 (far future). The RegCM4 projections suggested a substantial decline in mean Indian Summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and wet days (rainfall ≥ 1 mm; 7%–14%) over IGP under high‐emission RCP8.5 scenario. The contribution of 90th and 99th percentile days and total rainfall on wet days, seems to be get enhanced in future by 14%–35%, which implies the increase and intensification in rainfall extremes over IGP by the end of the 21st century. Further, the decline in ISMR and negligible changes in annual rainfall over IGP suggest the possible shift of monsoon regime during the later months of the year in warming climate. Thus, findings of present study may play a crucial role in predicting the ISMR and rainfall extremes over the IGP. Therefore, it can be useful for scientists and policymakers to plan and implement mitigation strategies.

WITHDRAWN: Exploring trend and forecasting of temperature and rainfall in Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh, India using non-parametric and bagging REPTree model

“…Sivakumar and Stefanski 2010 projected that monsoon precipitation will increase annually, with increased inter-annual variability across South-east Asia. Irregularity in atmospheric and oceanic factors such as aerosols accumulation, greenhouse gas emissions, land use modifications, El Nino and La Nina southern oscillations (ENSOs), Indian Ocean warming and convective available potential energy have strongly affected the monsoon rainfall Choudhary et al 2020;Das et al 2020;Varotsos et al 2021;Pant et al 2023). Trends in subsurface temperature variability, precipitation extremes and glacier retreat are consistent with the response expected from a warming planet across mountainous ecosystems (Fischer et al 2014;Polemio and Lonigro 2015;Gariano et al 2017;Patton et al 2018).…”

Evaluation of Changes in Temperature Extremes in Vamsadhara River Basin, Odisha, India

“…If more than one observation is made during one or more time periods, then , where 'n 'is the number of years of data. The Q i values were sorted in ascending order after being computed in a quantity of N. Following equation is used to determine the median of Q i : (6) 3. RESULTS…”

“…In this study they found that out of selected indices, ensemble mean of RX1DAY, RX5DAY, R10MM, R20MM, and CWD detected to increase in northeastern and Western Ghats regions of India". Pant et al [6] carried out "a locationspecific comprehensive analysis of precipitation over Indo Gangetic Plain, with the help of second generation CORDEX-CORE simulations in the present and future scenarios (under high emission RCP8.5 scenario). A substantial decline in mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and wet days (rainfall ≥ 1 mm; 7%-14%) over Indo Gangetic Plains under RCP8.5 scenario is suggested under RegCM4 projections.…”