Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired

Abstract

Models of dismissals of sports executives frequently ignore the development of expectations regarding performance. The author explores the interplay between these expectations and the coach's tenure by examining dismissals of college football head coaches from 1983 to 2006. Using a discrete-time hazard model, the author demonstrates that schools use prior performance in two ways: to evaluate the ability of the coach and to establish performance standards for retention. As recent performance is more relevant for estimating ability, the author shows that stronger recent performances decrease the chance of dismissal but stronger historic performances increase the chance of dismissal. Results describe a continual learning process on the part of schools. The author also considers the effects of race, insiderness, rivalries, and rules violations on retention.

Leadership Succession and Performance: An Application to College Football

“…Our paper makes four primary contributions. First, we agree with Rowe et al (2005), Soebbing and Washington (2011), Holmes (2011), and Adler, Berry, and Doherty (2013) that existing studies do not address the long-term impact of leadership succession. We provide a more longitudinal examination of succession by examining three time periods: the first, second, and fourth year following a performance base coaching change.…”

“…Coaches typically sign 4-to 5-year contracts and the typical recruiting cycle is 4 years. Therefore, a new head coach will likely be given a full cycle of his own recruiting, training, and game strategies (Holmes, 2011).…”

“…The tension between exploration and exploitation can often create a sense of stakeholder impatience, especially in teams with rich traditions (Holmes, 2011). According to the discrete-time hazard model, the timing of winning games, the performance against rivals, and the recent victories impact the likelihood of coach retention or dismissal (Holmes, 2011).…”

“…According to the discrete-time hazard model, the timing of winning games, the performance against rivals, and the recent victories impact the likelihood of coach retention or dismissal (Holmes, 2011). Coaches of teams with strong winning tradition work under different time pressures than those tasked with a "turnaround," whose mission is to implement transformational changes in the system and culture.…”

“…In addition, as described above, there are varying degrees of expectations, such as university personnel, donors and alumni, fans, conference affiliation, and media, based on funding and resources available to each program. As Holmes (2011) argues in his study on FBS schools, "each school has a unique history, which presumably produces different expectations for its teams . .…”