Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift

Holland, Paul R.; Kwok, R.

doi:10.1038/ngeo1627

Cited by 531 publications

(594 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Areas of low correlation are regions where ice motion is not attributed to the winds because of modifications by internal stresses. The simulated hemispheric average correlation is r 2 ¼ 0.65, slightly greater than the observed value (r 2 ¼ 0.52) 16 . Consistent with the observations, the simulation shows large areas in the Atlantic and Pacific away from the continent that have high correlation values, whereas in the Indian Ocean the correlation is generally less but with several isolated areas with high values (Fig.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 52%

“…Generally, the simulation has greater correlation than is estimated from the observation 16 , particularly in the Indian Ocean. The greater correlation of the simulation than is observed may reflect the simulation lacking errors in ice tracking and having ice dynamics consistent with atmospheric forcing 16 . The greater correlation may also reflect unrealistic behaviour in the simulated sea-ice.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The time period for calculating the trend was chosen to match the duration and approximate period of satellite-tracked sea-ice motion observations (1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010). Over this period, observations show that ice-motion trends are dominated by winds, and that winds contribute significantly to ice-concentration trends through both dynamic and thermodynamic effects 16 . Consistent with the observations, the CORE2 simulation reveals spatial heterogeneity in the Antarctic sea-ice duration (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Including the variability in the CORE2 air temperature significantly reduces the hemispheric increase in sea-ice area. Southern Hemisphere sea-ice drift is linked to local winds and has made an important contribution to sea-ice concentration trends around much of West Antarctica over the 1992-2010 period 16 . We use vector correlation over the approximate period of satellite-tracked sea-ice motion observations (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) to quantify the effect winds have on ice motion, both through direct wind stress and through the forcing from ocean stress and seasurface tilt that is correlated with local winds.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, observations and modelling have highlighted the importance of wind variability in accounting for the behaviour of Southern Hemisphere sea-ice 10,[15][16][17][18][19] . Originally, it was argued that trends in dynamics and thermodynamics linked to local winds were responsible for producing the regional sea-ice trends in most sectors of the Southern Ocean 16 . More recently, it has been suggested 20 that the largest autumn concentration trends were caused by trends in the temporal derivative of sea-ice concentrations during spring, complicating the direct link between wind anomalies and autumn sea-ice trends.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Sources of heterogeneous variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice

et al. 2015

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While the Northern Hemisphere sea-ice has uniformly declined over the past several decades, the observed sea-ice in the Southern Hemisphere has exhibited regions of increase and decrease. Here we use a comprehensive set of ocean-sea-ice simulations (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007) to elucidate the drivers of the observed heterogeneous sea-ice trends. We show wind variability is an important determinant of the heterogeneous pattern of the variability and trends in Southern Hemisphere sea-ice. Only in the West Pacific region does Southern Annular Mode wind forcing contribute significantly to the trend in sea-ice duration. El Niño Southern Oscillation wind forcing contribution to the sea-ice duration trend is confined to the Atlantic and Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, weather is a significant driver of the sea-ice duration trend. Only in the East Pacific region is wind forcing alone insufficient to give rise to the observed sea-ice decline and must be augmented by warming to reproduce the observations.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 52%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sources of heterogeneous variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice

et al. 2015

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Temporal and spatial evolution of the Antarctic sea ice prior to the September 2012 record maximum extent

Turner

Hosking

Phillips

et al. 2013

Geophys. Res. Lett.

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On 24 September 2012 the Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) reached a new annual daily maximum (ADM) for the satellite era of 19.72 × 106 km2. The largest positive SIE anomalies compared to the mean of all ADMs were found over the northern Amundsen Sea, off the coast of Wilkes Land, with smaller positive anomalies off the Dronning Maud Land coast (30°W to 30°E). The SIE at the ADM is significantly correlated with the extents for the previous 80 days, but the ice growth during the winter of 2012 was close to the climatological rate, and 1 month before the ADM, the SIE was near the recent mean. Deep depressions in the circumpolar trough since late August 2012 resulted in strong southerly flow and marked northward sea ice advection. The linear trend in SIE suggests that it contributed ~40% to the 2012 anomaly, with depression activity adding ~60%.

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Variability of sea‐ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century

et al. 2014

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The record of winter fast-ice in the South Orkney Islands, northern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, is over a century long and provides the longest observational record of sea-ice variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present analyses of the series of fast-ice formation and breakout dates from 1903 to 2008. We show that over the satellite era (post-1979), the timing of both final autumn formation and complete spring breakout of fast-ice is representative of the regional sea-ice concentrations (SIC) in the northern Weddell Sea, and associated with atmospheric conditions in the Amundsen Sea region to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Variation in the fast-ice breakout date is influenced by the intensity of the westerly/ north-westerly winds associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). In contrast, the date of ice formation displays correlations with regional oceanic and sea-ice conditions over the previous 18 months, which indicate a preconditioning during the previous summer and winter, and exhibits variability associated with variation in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (i.e., the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). A reduction in fast-ice duration at the South Orkney Islands around the 1950s was associated with both later formation and earlier breakout. However, there were marked changes in variability (with periodicities of 3-5, 7-9, and 20 years) in each of the series and in their relationships with ENSO and SAM, indicating the need for caution in interpreting changes in ice conditions based on shorter-term satellite series.

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Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift

Cited by 531 publications

References 27 publications

Sources of heterogeneous variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice

Sources of heterogeneous variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice

Temporal and spatial evolution of the Antarctic sea ice prior to the September 2012 record maximum extent

Variability of sea‐ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century

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