Wind Speed Event Forecasting using a Hybrid WRF and ANN Model

Groch, Matthew; Vermeulen, H.J.

doi:10.1109/icpes47639.2019.9105499

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…This topic has received very limited attention in literature. The model presented in this contribution represents a significant advancement on previous work on the forecasting of HWSS events (Groch and Vermeulen, 2019a), and reflects a number of improvements. The number of NWP ensemble members that are used to derive the wind speed forecasts are increased.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting wind speed events at a utility-scale wind farm using a WRF-ANN model

Groch

Vermeulen

2021

Wind Engineering

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High Wind Speed Shutdown (HWSS) events pose a significant threat to power system security for grids with a high penetration of wind energy. To date, however, the forecasting of wind speed events has received limited attention in literature. This study proposes a hybrid WRF-ANN forecasting model to address the research objective of modelling wind speed events at turbine level, using meso-scale wind speed forecasts as inputs. A multi-model WRF ensemble model is used for the short-term meso-scale wind speed forecasts, whereas the ANN model uses the forecast as the input in order to predict the wind speed events for individual turbines. The performance of the model is evaluated for wind speed events which are derived using two wind speed thresholds for a large utility-scale wind farm. All significant events are accurately predicted by the model with few false alarms.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%