Wind stilling‐reversal across Sweden: The impact of land‐use and large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes

Minola, Lorenzo; Reese, Heather; Lai, Hui‐Wen; Azorín-Molina, César; Guijarro, José Antonio; Son, Seok‐Woo; Chen, Deliang

doi:10.1002/joc.7289

Cited by 20 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…Overall, the homogenized WS series during 1925-2021 presented a stronger correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) than that of the raw WS series (0.54 vs 0.29). This improved relationship with NAO confirms and extends the result of Minola et al (2016) and Minola et al (2021) using the data after 1956 in Sweden. These results stress the importance of the century-long homogenized WS series in increasing our understanding of the recent WS stilling and recovery.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…As revealed by many previous studies (Roderick et al, 2007;Vautard et al, 2010;McVicar et al, 2012;Minola et al, 2016;Laapas and Venäläinen, 2017;Azorin-Molina et al, 2018;Zeng et al, 2019;Zhang and Wang, 2020), WS decreased from the 1970s to 2010s, and subsequently recovered over many terrestrial regions of the Northern Hemisphere -this is known as the WS stilling and recovery. Possible causes of the WS stilling and recovery have been widely discussed, and include changes in surface roughness induced by greenness and land use/cover change (Vautard et al, 2010;Wu et al, 2018a;, and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes (Azorin-Molina et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2018b;Zeng et al, 2019), such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as revealed in Sweden by Minola et al (2016) and Minola et al (2021). However, all of the studies relied on available WS series starting in the 1950s or 1960s when the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) began to guide automatic weather monitoring in 1950 (WMO, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

HomogWS-se: A century-long homogenized dataset of near-surface wind speed observations since 1925 rescued in Sweden

Zhou

Azorín-Molina

Engström

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Creating a century-long homogenized near-surface wind speed (WS) observation dataset is essential to improve our knowledge about the uncertainty and causes of current WS stilling and recovery. Here, we rescued paper-based WS records dating back to the 1920s at 13 stations in Sweden and established a four-step homogenization procedure to generate the first 10-member centennial homogenized WS dataset (HomogWS-se) for community use. First, background climate variation in the rescued WS series was removed, using a verified reanalysis series as a reference series to construct a difference series. A penalized maximal F test at a significance level of 0.05 was then applied to detect spurious change-points. About 38 % of the detected change-points were confirmed by the known events recorded in metadata, and the average segment length split by the change-points is ~11.3 years. A mean-matching method using up to five years of data from two adjacent segments was used to adjust the earlier segments relative to the latest segment. The homogenized WS series was finally obtained by adding the homogenized difference series back onto the subtracted reference series. Compared with the raw WS data, the homogenized WS data is more continuous and lacks significant non-climatic jumps. The homogenized WS series presents an initial WS stilling and subsequent recovery until the 1990s, whereas the raw WS fluctuates with no clear trend before the 1970s. The homogenized WS shows a 25 % reduction in the WS stilling during 1990–2005 than the raw WS, and this reduction is significant when considering the homogenization uncertainty. The homogenized WS exhibits a significantly stronger correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) than that of the raw WS (0.54 vs 0.29). These results highlight the importance of the century-long homogenized WS series in increasing our ability to detect and attribute multidecadal variability and changes in WS. The proposed homogenization procedure enables other countries or regions to rescue their early climate data and jointly build global long-term high-quality datasets. HomogWS-se is publicly available from the Zenodo repository at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5850264 (Zhou et al., 2022).

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

HomogWS-se: A century-long homogenized dataset of near-surface wind speed observations since 1925 rescued in Sweden

Zhou

Azorín-Molina

Engström

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Such seasonal differences could be explained by the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation, in particular by the in uence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, especially when it comes to modulate winter NSWS variability. In addition, Minola et al (2021) investigated NSWS changes across Sweden for the recent past two decades (i.e., 1997-2019), which were only partly covered by Minola et al (2016). Here it is shown that the stilling ceased in 2003, and no clear trend can be detected afterwards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…In fact, in a changing climate, regional warming differences control variations of regional surface pressure gradients, which modulate circulation patterns (Li et al 2013). For instance, phase changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Azorin-Molina et al 2018a; Minola et al 2021) and of the Paci c Decadal Oscillation (Zeng et al 2019) have been linked to the reversal in the terrestrial stilling. The aging of measuring instruments has also been suggested as a potential cause of the NSWS decrease (Azorin-Molina et al 2018b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

Minola

Lönn

Azorín-Molina

et al. 2022

Preprint

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This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019: (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drives the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Sweden.

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“…A reversal in terrestrial stilling with a slight recovery of wind speed during the most recent decade has been documented for China (Yang et al., 2012), South Korea (Kim & Paik, 2015), Saudi Arabia (Azorin‐Molina, Rehman, et al., 2018) and Sweden (Minola et al., 2022). Zeng et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Variations in Monthly Maximum Gust Speed at St Mary's, Isles of Scilly (UK)

Masina

D’Ayala

Antonini

2022

Earth and Space Science

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Long‐term variations in maximum gust speeds have been analyzed using wind measurements recorded at St Mary's, Isles of Scilly, UK, and possible drivers of recent changes have been investigated. A rigorous homogenization procedure has been applied to the wind records to remove discontinuities mainly caused by non‐climatic changes. Trends in magnitude of the homogenized annual and monthly maximum gust speeds have been subsequently estimated. A significant (p < 0.10) decreasing trend of −0.102 m s−1/10 years is exhibited by the annual maximum gust speeds over the period 1928–2011, while a non‐significant (p > 0.10) positive trend characterizes the entire period 1928–2020 of wind measurements. A turning point has been detected in the monthly maximum gust speed series in 2012, followed by a trend reversal. Distinctive differences in the gust trend pattern have been observed among the seasons, with increasing trend in summer, and winter gust speeds exhibiting decline in 1969–2011 and strengthening since 2012. Variations in the monthly maximum gust speeds appear closely related to changes in air temperature and latitudinal pressure gradients. Furthermore, the monthly maximum gust speeds show significant correlation with the main oceanic‐atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. A synergistic effect among the phases of the dominant patterns of climate variability appears to explain the observed decline and recovery trends in winter gusts. Summer gust speeds show a positive correlation with the global land‐ocean temperature deviations from the corresponding 1951–1980 base period mean.

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Wind stilling‐reversal across Sweden: The impact of land‐use and large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes

Cited by 20 publications

References 81 publications

HomogWS-se: A century-long homogenized dataset of near-surface wind speed observations since 1925 rescued in Sweden

HomogWS-se: A century-long homogenized dataset of near-surface wind speed observations since 1925 rescued in Sweden

The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

Variations in Monthly Maximum Gust Speed at St Mary's, Isles of Scilly (UK)

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