Winds of Change? The June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey

Abstract

Held in an environment of growing social polarisation, fears of emergent authoritarianism, and economic challenges, Turkey's June 2015 election ended the Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi's (AKP's) parliamentary majority, challenging its single-party rule for the first time in 13 years. This article first provides information on the background to the election, focusing on debates about the authoritarian tendencies of AKP, economic conditions, and the competition for the Kurdish vote. Then, a brief overview of the campaign period is presented, followed by an analysis of election results at the sub-national level. The article concludes with some preliminary discussion of the causes of the loss of AKP's majority.

Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey

“…The balloting in June took place in an environment of growing political polarisation in Turkey. The increasing authoritarianism of the AKP's governance in general and Erdoğan's effort to change the parliamentary system into presidentialism in particular contributed to increased polarisation in party competition (Kemahlıoğlu 2015). But this polarisation did not involve political violence.…”

“…Post-election analyses emphasised several reasons for this (Kemahlıoğlu 2015). First, the incumbent party's votes had declined due to the worsening economic conditions.…”

“…As noted earlier, Erdoğan had led the AKP's campaign in the June election, ignoring the constitutional provision that mandates an unpartisan president. But the post-election polls showed that his domination of the AKP's campaign had not been very popular among the party's supporters (Kemahlıoğlu 2015). As a result, he chose not to campaign actively for the November election by addressing the crowds at election rallies.…”

“…This issue has generated extensive controversy and debate among party elites, academics, and journalists for the past four years. In its election manifesto in June, the AKP advocated a constitutional change that would replace Turkey's parliamentary system with presidentialism (Kemahlıoğlu 2015). Since the opinion polls showed that a majority of the voters opposed this change, the AKP did not widely publicise it in the campaign for the November election.…”

“…After nearly a decade of high growth rates, Turkey, like several other emerging markets such as Brazil, experienced an economic slowdown that reduced the growth rate to around three per cent during the period from 2012 to 2015 (Kemahlıoğlu 2015;yeldan & Ünüvar 2015). In the five months preceding the snap election, the problems of the economy and the Turkish lira's rapid depreciation against the dollar continued.…”