Figure 1: Scatter plots depicting the relation of pass rate (a measure of level difficulty) and churn rate over 168 game levels of Angry Birds Dream Blast, in both real player data and our simulations. Here, churn is defined as not playing for 7 days. The colors denote level numbers. The baseline simulation model predicts pass rate and churn directly from AI gameplay. Our proposed extended model augments this with a simulation of how the player population evolves over the levels.