Winning With Chaos in Association Football: Spatiotemporal Event Distribution Randomness Metric for Team Performance Evaluation

Bandara, Ishara; Shelyag, Sergiy; Rajasegarar, Sutharshan; Dwyer, Dan; Kim, Eun-Jin; Angelova, Maia

doi:10.1109/access.2024.3413648

IEEE Access

2024

DOI: 10.1109/access.2024.3413648

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Winning With Chaos in Association Football: Spatiotemporal Event Distribution Randomness Metric for Team Performance Evaluation

Ishara Bandara,

Sergiy Shelyag,

Sutharshan Rajasegarar

et al.

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Predicting goal probabilities with improved xG models using event sequences in association football

Bandara,

Shelyag,

Rajasegarar

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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In association football, predicting the likelihood and outcome of a shot at a goal is useful but challenging. Expected goal (xG) models can be used in a variety of ways including evaluating performance and designing offensive strategies. This study proposed a novel framework that uses the events preceding a shot, to improve the accuracy of the expected goals (xG) metric. A combination of previously explored and unexplored temporal features is utilized in the proposed framework. The new features include; “advancement factor”, and “player position column”. A random forest model was used, which performed better than published single-event-based models in the literature. Results further demonstrated a significant improvement in model performance with the inclusion of preceding event information. The proposed framework and model enable the discovery of event sequences that improve xG, which include; opportunities built up from the sides of the 18-yard box, shots attempted from in front of the goal within the opposition’s 18-yard box, and shots from successful passes to the far post.

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Predicting goal probabilities with improved xG models using event sequences in association football

Bandara,

Shelyag,

Rajasegarar

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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Winning With Chaos in Association Football: Spatiotemporal Event Distribution Randomness Metric for Team Performance Evaluation

Cited by 1 publication

References 34 publications

Predicting goal probabilities with improved xG models using event sequences in association football

Predicting goal probabilities with improved xG models using event sequences in association football

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