2017
DOI: 10.5670/oceanog.2017.115
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Winter 2015/16: A Turning Point in ENSO-Based Seasonal Forecasts

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Cited by 23 publications
(33 citation statements)
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“…In particular, Arctic sea ice loss has been correlated with a greater number of cold winter days (defined as 1.5 standard deviations below climatology) in the northern continents [7]. According to some analyses, Arctic sea ice loss and enhanced Arctic warming [8] have lead to changes in air pressure and circulation patterns that favor cold winters in the Eastern USA and Northern Eurasia [9,10], though this causative role is disputed [11,12]. A weakening stratospheric polar vortex may be a mediating factor [13].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In particular, Arctic sea ice loss has been correlated with a greater number of cold winter days (defined as 1.5 standard deviations below climatology) in the northern continents [7]. According to some analyses, Arctic sea ice loss and enhanced Arctic warming [8] have lead to changes in air pressure and circulation patterns that favor cold winters in the Eastern USA and Northern Eurasia [9,10], though this causative role is disputed [11,12]. A weakening stratospheric polar vortex may be a mediating factor [13].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…That noise component just happened to dominate the predictable seasonal signal in the last two winters. Cohen et al () note in addition that observed precipitation amounts for Seattle and Los Angeles were outside the range of the NMME ensemble predictions for DJF (December–February) 2015–2016, suggesting that these models may underestimate noise or miss predictable seasonal components attributable to certain remote large‐scale influences on California precipitation (Mo and Higgins, ; Hartmann, ; Hoell et al, ; Seager and Henderson, ; Cohen, ; Swain et al, ; Teng & Branstator, ; Paek et al, ; Wang et al, ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example, Cohen et al . () argued that in the current era of the Arctic amplification, Arctic influences on mid‐latitude weather patterns should be considered in seasonal forecasts developed based on simulations of general circulation models (GCMs). Sigmond et al .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Consideration of other natural climate forcings such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific-North-American (PNA) pattern has also provided improvement of the regional seasonal climate forecasts. Results of several recent studies have indicated that in order to add skill to seasonal climate forecasts, in addition to the abovementioned natural climate forcings, some other features of the climate system need to be adequately considered (Sigmond et al, 2013;Cohen et al, 2017). For example, Cohen et al (2017) argued that in the current era of the Arctic amplification, Arctic influences on mid-latitude weather patterns should be considered in seasonal forecasts developed based on simulations of general circulation models (GCMs).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
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