Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Regions

Abstract

Weather whiplash" is a colloquial phrase for describing an extreme event that includes shifts between two opposing weather conditions. Prior media coverage and research on these types of extremes have largely ignored winter weather events. However, rapid swings in winter weather can result in crossing from frozen to unfrozen conditions, or vice versa; thus, the potential impact of these types of events on coupled human and natural systems may be large. Given rapidly changing winter conditions in seasonally snow-covered regions, there is a pressing need for a deeper understanding of such events and the extent of their impacts to minimize their risks. Here we introduce the concept of winter weather whiplash, defined as a class of extreme event in which a collision of unexpected conditions produces a forceful, rapid, back-and-forth change in winter weather that induces an outsized impact on coupled human and natural systems. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate that the effects of winter weather whiplash events depend on the natural and human context in which they occur, and discuss how these events may result in the restructuring of social and ecological systems. We use the long-term hydrometeorological record at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA to demonstrate quantitative methods for delineating winter weather whiplash events and their biophysical impacts. Ultimately, we argue that robust conceptual and quantitative frameworks for understanding winter weather whiplash events will contribute to the ways in which we mitigate and adapt to winter climate change in vulnerable regions. Plain Language SummaryWeather whiplash is a term used by researchers and the media to describe wild and rapid shifts in weather conditions. Here we investigate "winter weather whiplash" events, which are characterized by weather conditions swinging from frozen to unfrozen (or vice versa). These events have important consequences for ecosystems and communities, especially when they occur at unusual times of the year. Impacts of these events include tree damage, flooding, electrical outages, and crop damage. We use a series of case studies to explore the impacts of these events and analyze a long-term data set to demonstrate how they might be detected from weather data. Understanding winter weather whiplash events will help decision makers and planners adapt and mitigate these events in the future.

Sampling density and date influence spatial representation of tree ring reconstructions

“…The increase in extremes have important implications on the long-term variability of past hydroclimate and to the interannual volatility of PMDI. Recent work has shown increases in interannual volatility has important impacts on agriculture (Locke et al, 2017), and social and ecological systems (Casson et al, 2019). Our finding suggests that in areas with a sparse tree-ring network, such as in the ORV, tree-ring reconstructions underestimate extremes and therefore, volatility in extremes is also underestimated.…”

Increasing Risk of Wild Swings between Droughts and Floods over Global Land Areas

“…As a result, deluge can be interspersed with very dry interludes. Local changes in the character of precipitation relevant to the wild swings between droughts and floods depend upon a multitude of factors, involving large-scale atmosphere circulation and topographical conditions 13,14,15,16,24,25 ; other influences from land-atmosphere feedback and a warming Arctic with loss of sea ice are also possible and remain a subject of ongoing research 17,18 . By probing changes in the likelihood and spatial distribution of dry-to-wet precipitation events, this study is expected to shed light on understanding the underlying mechanisms of drought-flood cycles and provide useful information for policy makers and infrastructure operators to develop integrated approach to drought and flood management.…”

“…In the case of precipitation whiplash, droughts and floods are two sides of the same coin, spelling double trouble for agricultural yields, water quality, and human livelihood. Their successive occurrence, commingled with uneven population distribution and interconnected infrastructure systems could cause even more of a strain on nations' ability to maintain the social, economic and environmental sustainability [17][18][19][20] . However, existing studies are few and have primarily focused on specific whiplash-like events at regional scale [12][13][14][15][16] .…”

Sampling density and date along with species selection influence spatial representation of tree-ring reconstructions

“…Precisely dated tree-ring chronologies are one of the primary proxies that can reconstruct interannual climate variability over recent centuries to millennia (Fritts, 1976). Tree rings provide robust historical and prehistorical context for droughts and pluvials (wet periods) captured in the instrumental record throughout the midlatitudes (e.g., Stahle and Cleaveland, 1994; Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998;Cook et al, 2010;Fang et al, 2010;Chen et al, 2013;Pederson et al, 2013;Güner et al, 2017;Oliver et al, 2019;Morales et al, 2020). Most of our understanding of past drought severity and variability in North America is the result of the North American Drought Atlas (NADA; Cook et al, 1999).…”