Wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency around Japan

Inatsu, Masaru; Terakura, Kazutaka

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1152-8

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…We obtained an increasing trend in the cyclone growth rate and the number of explosive cyclones east of Japan, which was probably associated with the increase in lowlevel baroclinicity and the increase in humidity. This result is consistent with the enhancement of storm-track activity found in a global warming experiment (Inatsu and Kimoto 2005). Moreover, the result is also consistent with Nakamura et al (2002), although the significant weakening of the East Asian monsoon suggested in their study was not identified in this study.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…The same analysis for other seasons showed that the increase was most prominent in winter. This result is consistent with the recent enhancement in storm-track activity during winter over the northwestern Pacific (Nakamura et al 2002;Inatsu and Kimoto 2005), although the storm-track enhancement was reported for much broader areas.…”

Section: B Changes In Explosive Cyclone Frequencysupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Moreover, because this method detected multiple tracks for a merged cyclone, the track with the longest lifetime was chosen as a cyclone's representative track. The relationship between cyclone mergers and the growth rate was discussed in Inatsu (2009).…”

Section: B Detection Of Explosively Developing Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent Changes in Explosively Developing Extratropical Cyclones over the Winter Northwestern Pacific

2012

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This study investigated recent changes in the characteristics of explosively developing extratropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific region in winter from 1979/80 to 2010/11 by using reanalysis data from the Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis/Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/ JCDAS). The results showed that the frequency of explosive cyclones increased in the northwestern Pacific region east of Japan. This increase was accompanied by a decrease in the number of slowly developing cyclones, indicating an increase in the cyclone growth rate. Moreover, most of the increased explosive cyclones east of Japan originated southwest of Japan. A comparison of the dynamical features and energy budgets of two composite cyclones in the earlier and later halves of the study period suggested that the increase was due to an enhancement of the low-level baroclinicity to the east of Japan and an increase in humidity associated with sea surface temperature warming and enhanced evaporation along the eastern shore of the Asian continent.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: B Changes In Explosive Cyclone Frequencysupporting

confidence: 93%

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Recent Changes in Explosively Developing Extratropical Cyclones over the Winter Northwestern Pacific

2012

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“…Another example is the strengthening of the extratropical cyclones passing through Taiwan, the southern coast of Japan, and the Northwest Pacific southeast of Japan (called Nangan cyclones in Japan). Recently, Inatsu and Terakura (2012) demonstrated that the growth rate of the Nangan cyclone is controlled by the background mean flow through baroclinic instability. As the Nangan cyclone passage route starts around Taiwan, intensified vertical shear due to global warming may increase the growth rate of the Nangan cyclone in the late 21st century.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Harada

Hirahara

Hagiya

et al. 2013

SOLA

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The winter response of the Asian jet stream to global warming is investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset under the RCP4.5 scenario. We first evaluate model performances in reproducing the current climatology in the upper troposphere and select the best 27 models. A multi-model ensemble projection by the selected models indicates that the jet stream over the Indochina peninsula and the South China Sea is intensified on its equatorial side in the late 21st century, while the jet stream shifts poleward over the Eurasian continent and the North Pacific. The strengthening of the jet stream on the south side is associated with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomalies in the upper (lower) troposphere over the southern part of China and decreased upper tropospheric divergence over the Maritime Continent. The strength of the upper tropospheric divergence and the amplitude of the anticylonic eddy streamfunction are strongly correlated. These findings suggest that future changes in the jet stream are related to the weakening of a Matsuno-Gill response to tropical heating.(Citation: Harada, M., S. Hirahara, S. Hagiya, H. Murai, Y. Oikawa, and S. Maeda, 2013: Intensification of the south side of the Asian jet stream during the northern winter in CMIP5 models. SOLA, 9, 94−97,

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“…Up to now, not much attention has been given to the effects of this uncertainty on RCM simulations, which may become even more pronounced with increasing difference between the coarse and fine resolutions. Efforts towards tracking weather systems, and more specifically extratropical cyclones, have been already made by generating RCM ensemble simulations with modified lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data (Inatsu and Terakura, ). Using driving data from different GCMs does not solve this issue since GCMs may provide atmospheric fields where weather patterns differ significantly from one to the other.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generation of regional climate ensembles using Atmospheric Forcing Shifting

Sasse¹,

Schädler²

2013

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Ensembles of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations are crucial for assessing regional climate change and the associated uncertainties. This article presents an RCM ensemble generation technique which explores uncertainties arising from the positioning of synoptic systems in the large-scale atmospheric forcing by shifting the atmospheric fields from global climate model (GCM) runs horizontally. Here, we discuss how the so-called Atmospheric Forcing Shifting (AFS) affects temperature and precipitation over Europe for the period 1980-1984. We use ERA-40 reanalysis data in which the atmospheric fields are shifted to each direction by 25 and 50 km, respectively, to run RCM simulations with COSMO-CLM at 50-km resolution. The analysis of the AFS ensemble includes comparisons with E-OBS observations and COSMO-CLM runs driven by different GCMs. AFS has an evident effect on the spatiotemporal distributions of temperature and particularly precipitation, which is most pronounced during hydrological summer (May to October) when spatial weather patterns are more variable. Furthermore, AFS produces realistic changes in the likelihood and intensity of extreme precipitation. The changes induced by AFS depend strongly on orography, i.e. precipitation increases are likely to occur where moist air masses are shifted towards the windward mountain side and vice versa. Thus, increasing the RCM ensemble spread by means of AFS is a simple and useful method for sampling observed climate statistics and assessing the variability and changes in mean and extreme climate.

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Wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency around Japan

Cited by 5 publications

References 37 publications

Recent Changes in Explosively Developing Extratropical Cyclones over the Winter Northwestern Pacific

Recent Changes in Explosively Developing Extratropical Cyclones over the Winter Northwestern Pacific

Intensification of the South Side of the Asian Jet Stream during the Northern Winter in CMIP5 models

Generation of regional climate ensembles using Atmospheric Forcing Shifting

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